Analyzing the Value of Morgan Rielly

The Toronto Maple Leafs’ defense is just not deep enough to survive without Morgan Rielly.

Though the team has gone a respectable 2-2-1 without their second-best defenseman,Morgan Rielly, their precarious hold on a playoff spot will not last if he is out long-term.

Their is no word on when he will be coming back, other than “after the all-star break.”

In Rielly’s Absence

In the first game without Rielly, the Leafs faced the Rangers and lost 5-2. They out-possessed the Rangers, but an inordinate amount of their shots were blocked or missed the net (half!)  Frank Corrado stepped in for Rielly and wasn’t bad – 52% CF. The real problem was that Babcock was forced to give Hunwick and Polak each over 20 minutes of ice-time, which is about an extra 2.5 minutes each.

In the second game, vs Ottawa (3-2 SO Loss) the Leafs also played well, and probably deserved to win. Replacing Corrado, who was replacing Rielly, was Marincin. Marincin is way better than Corrado, allowing the coach to cut the ice time to Polak and Hunwick, and the Leafs were better for it.

In the next two games, both 4-0 shutouts, the Leafs stuck with the same lineup – Marincin replacing Rielly.  They dominated both games and like the previous game, Marincin was a revelation – for the most part making up for Rielly’s absence.

The final game was a loss to the Flyers – third game in four nights, the all-star break looming.  Once again, Marincin was good, Rielly was out and Hunwick and Polak were atrocious.

What Morgan Rielly does

Rielly plays gets the most ice-time on the team. He starts the most in the defensive zone (by a minuscule amount over Gardiner) and (it seems) against the best players. This is misleading, however.  By measuring the average ice time of the players he plays against, and their average CF%, we can see that there is almost no difference between the  quality of players or the kinds of  ice-time Gardiner and Rielly get.

The main difference between their deployment is that Gardiner doesn’t kill penalties. That’s it. At 5v5 Gardiner averages 16.59. Morgan Rielly averages 16.78 –  approximately 12 seconds more.

Rielly has a CF% of 50.48, 4th on the team. He has one goal and 16 assists in 43 games.  The point totals are a bit fluky, but I’d like to see the assists be a little higher. The one goal is pretty random and I’m not gonna criticize him for it, but to be a legit number-one dman, he has to score more.

His actual defense is pretty good. He causes his team to get more shots then they allow, he moves the puck, and he can skate his way out of trouble.  He also has positive possession relative to his team.

Conclusion

Rielly is a very good player. If Jake Gardiner is better, and he is, by a lot, then it’s because he’s four years older.  I am confident stating that Rielly, who is only 22, is better than Gardiner was at the same age.

Also, after watching the “Road to the Winter Classic” (or whatever it was called) it seems clear that he’s the defacto-captain of this team.

The Leafs clearly miss him, but not to the extent you might think. Because Marincin was out for so long, and came back one game after Rielly’s injury, the Leafs barely missed a beat.  That is because Marincin is perhaps the NHL’s most underrated player and very good in his own right.

The real problem on the Leafs D is when they are forced to play both Hunwick and Polak in the same game.  Their other problem – best left for another article – is that Zaitsev has no business in an NHL top four at this point.

Zaitsev and Marincin would be a great third pairing. Gardiner and Carrick is already a great second pairing.  If the Leafs can get Rielly a partner, they’ll have a team ready to compete for the Stanley Cup.

As for an answer to the title question: Very Good. On pace to be an eventual #1 defenseman, and probably your future captain.

Stats from hockey.analysis.com and corsica.hockey