Toronto Maple Leafs: Maximize Entry Level Contracts, or Stay Patient?
The Toronto Maple Leafs rebuild is ahead of schedule and the question of ‘staying the course’ is a popular debate.
In this week’s roundtable our focus is the Toronto Maple Leafs plan.
Should the Toronto Maple Leafs take advantage of the once in a lifetime contract numbers of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and the rest of the kids to make a run at the Stanley Cup in the next 2-3 years? Or should they remain patient and make no significant additions?
Here’s what a quick poll on Twitter had to say:
Should the #leafs stay patient, or try to win a Cup in the next 2-3 years while the kids are still on ELC's? #tmltalk
— Editor in Leaf (@EditorinLeaf) January 11, 2017
Now let’s move on to our writers.
Shahbaz Hyder
They should remain patient and continue building the team much like how Chicago had done in the years leading up their 2010 cup win. They took their time and developed their core with top players like Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, and Marian Hossa.
I feel that Toronto can do this as well and develop players like Auston Matthews and William Nylander with veteran players on the team like Tyler Bozak, James Van Reimsdyk and Jake Gardiner.
James Tanner
The Leafs need to adopt a hybrid style between laying a solid foundation for a team that can be annually competitive, and a team that wants to go for it in the short term.
Clearly selling futures for short-term pieces or UFAs is ill-advised, but they have an upcoming three-Playoff chance to take advantage of all their young players being on ECLs + Kadri, Gardiner and JVR being on extremely team-friendly deals.
This will allow them, if they are smart, to build a team reminiscent of the Blackhawks first Cup Championship – the kind of team you can’t believe a team could put together in a salary-cap world.
In order to successfully do this, they need to trade some of their AHL/ junior prospects and even a first-rounder or two in order to build the best team possible while Auston Matthews et.al. are on entry-level deals.
This wouldn’t be like the Burke era starting of their rebuild by trading futures. It would be a sensible decision based on the realities of playing in a salary cap league.
Matthew Rodrigopulle
The Leafs should remain patient in their rebuild and let things happen, as they will. Like Brendan Shanahan promised, there will be pain, but rebuilds tend to take time. The kids need to develop, and things should not be rushed.
Recently, there have been many trade rumors surrounding the likes of players such as James Van Riemsdyk, Jake Gardiner and even William Nylander. Many believe that if the Leafs traded one of these pieces for, say a strong defenseman, it would suddenly turn the Leafs into a playoff contender. However, the fact of the matter is that the kids need time to fully grow and learn from playing in the NHL.
Look at successful rebuilds through drafting like we’ve seen in Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay. Their success did not come within 2-3 years. Instead they let the kids pan out and then decided who to keep and who to move based on the direction the team would need to go in to contend. The Leafs should do just that—let the kids develop and evaluate the market after.
Of course, it would be easier to build a team that looks great on paper while the kids are on entry-level contracts. Their salaries would be much cheaper, leaving much more cap room to bring in big money players to fill holes.
The dilemma in this predicament is that the kids may not be completely reliable yet in key situations like, let’s say, a game 7 overtime scenario. Time is still needed to develop.
The problem with waiting is that out of the big three players, Nylander’s ELC must be renewed before the 2018-2019 season, while Matthews’ and Marner’s ELC’s finish before the 2019-2020 season.
These three players are a big priority, and a majority of the Leafs cap space will be used up on their assured big money contracts. In order to build around this, the Leafs will either have to hope that our own players develop into a contending team on their own, which can happen given their potential, or management has to be on point with finding the best ways to acquire missing pieces.
The Leafs have the pieces in place to be contenders, but they cannot just try to trade and acquire pieces to make them win right now. They should develop what they have into bigger and better things, and acquire pieces to fill holes that our guys can’t fill.
Tim Chiasson
The Toronto Maple Leafs are already a good hockey team, so what’s the point in waiting long to make the team great?
They currently have no defensive prospects that project to be stars right now, which means they’re going to have to go out and get one via trade. What they certainly don’t need is another top ten draft pick.
I don’t think staying patient is going to be of much benefit to the core group of players, given how well they’re all playing right now. They’re only going to be better next season, so why waste that year and the year after?
Acquiring a top four defender and making moves to make the team better isn’t relinquishing the patience model – it’s recognizing what you have and running with it. It’s hard to win the Stanley Cup and if you have the financial freedom to do it and your team is a good hockey team then you do it. We’re talking financially conscious moves, not hand-tying moves.
The Leafs are at the point where they need to make hockey trades and not continue to strictly make future deals. Things change, and the progress of this organization is clearly something that has done just that. Ahead of schedule isn’t a bad thing – it’s an exciting one.
Let’s say, for example, this team makes the playoffs this year and gets bounced in the first round. Do you tell these young stars that the goal isn’t to be better? That it isn’t to get back to the post-season and win? That’s a terrible message to send. If the team is good enough, then make a deal or two and see what happens.
Torrin Batchelor
It’s not a win now versus a win later approach, it’s simply a logistical reality. 2019 is going to be the Year of the Toronto Maple Leafs. I won’t be so bold as to guarantee a parade down Yonge Street, but a conference final seat seems like a incredibly realistic goal.
The contract status:
Right now the Leafs have Nylander, Marner, Zaitsev, Matthews, Brown, Hyman, Carrick all on entry level contracts. Even with all the bonus money that will be owed to that very talented rookie core, the Leafs will never have the same kind of financial might under the salary cap as they will for the next two seasons after this one.
You’ve gotta know Matthews is getting paid handsomely immediately after his ELC expires, Marner won’t be too far behind him. Nylander, Brown, Hyman and company will probably earn bridge contracts but all will still be millions more expensive than they are currently.
The draft pipeline:
Building through the draft is clearly the way to salvation when done properly, but eventually you need somewhere to put all the kids coming through your system. The Leafs only have 50 NHL contracts they can hand out and with Kapanen, Leipsic, Bracco, Timashov, Johnson, Nielsen, Valiev, Grundstrom, Korshkov and all the other kids already in the system and the ones yet to be acquired at the draft in LA, the Leafs are running out of room and fast.
The roster holes:
Even a year ago the Leafs seemed years away from relevancy. Yes, they had the shiny new coach who seemed to be able to get the most out of his team and a few electric rookies. However, the team was missing pieces in several key areas, most notably a No.1 Center and a No.1 goalie… guess what?
Auston Matthews and Frederik Andersen have clearly checked those boxes off for the Leafs. That leaves potentially a veteran top six trigger-man to get the most out of Matthews and a pair of defence men that can round out a pretty sub-par Leafs blue line.
The performance so far:
The Leafs clearly have something special in Auston “Stone Cold” Matthews, whose drawn comparisons from Anze Kopitar and Jonathan Toews all the way up to the great Joe Sakic with his deadly accurate wrister.
Mitch Marner, William Nylander and the rest of the young guns are no slouches either, drawing praise from Lou Lamoriello stating that the Leafs are farther ahead than they thought they’d be at this point. The Leafs can score, and they can win games in exciting and entertaining fashions, if they can become slightly more disciplined with the lead then this group might even challenge for a playoff this season.
The conclusion:
Young cheap core + lots of financial might + fully stocked prospect cupboard = everything you need to make a contender status push inside the next 3 years.
If the Leafs can sign one of Kevin Shattenkirk or (preferably) Karl Alzner this summer and then use their massive stock of prospect capital to acquire another top four Dman and potentially a top six veteran scorer (depending on what happens with JVR) they have every piece of the puzzle you need to go for it and potentially win it all.
There’s no point in waiting Lou, but there’s also no need to go all in right now. The Leafs have time and their window is only just starting to creep open. 2019 Leafs Nation, remember this post.
Eddie Razo
If the opportunity presents itself then they should take advantage of their young players being on their entry level contracts. However, it should not be forced, by that I mean if the young Toronto Maple Leafs are naturaly pushing for a playoff spot they should look to add to the core.
What they should not do is add on for the sake of trying to make the playoffs because eventually if those incoming players have term, that could affect their cap when it comes to signing William Nylander, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and others.
Another top four defenseman needs to be added, but they need to make sure that it will fit within their cap situation going forward. If they cannot add another defenseman that will be consider top four, then they should remain patient and see what Andrew Nielsen, Travis Dermott, and Rinat Valiev develop into.
Next: Zach Hyman More Than Just Matthews Passenger
Not all teams win the cup with their best players on their entry-level contracts. The Pittsburgh Penguins won the cup in ’08-’09 which would be Sidney Crosby’s fourth season. Also, the Los Angeles Kings won with most of their core not on entry-level deals.
Yes, the Chicago Blackhawks won with Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews on their last year of their entry-level deas,. Nonetheless, they have still won an extra two cups with their core taking up most of their cap space.