Toronto Maple Leafs Offer Sheet Target: William Karlsson
The Toronto Maple Leafs offer sheet options are limited, but that doesn’t mean there are no options for the club to acquire a valuable player at a low cost.
We’ve looked at J.T. Miller from the New York Rangers already, let’s move further down the depth chart and look at William Karlsson from the Columbus Blue Jackets as a different option for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The 23 year old Karlsson had a good year in 2015-2016 as an effective third line center for the Blue Jackets.
His shot suppression and productive possession are great. He’s not overly offensive, but that’s not his role. He’s effective as a possession-minded shutdown center on the third line. His linemates are better with him than they are without him most of the time.
*following numbers from corsica.hockey
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His relative offensive zone start of -1.04% shows trust in a young player and his ability to function at an above average level without being sheltered.
His relative corsi-for percentage of 2.24% was one of the top numbers on the Blue Jackets, only exceeded by two players with tougher zone starts (Dean Kukin – 8 GP and Cam Atkinson – 81 GP). Not bad for a player whose 81 game season makes of 79.4% of his NHL total.
Of his 20 points in 2015-2016, all of them were at even strength, with 15 – or 75% – coming in as primary points.
Let’s look at a few players who have some comparables to Karlsson and their current, or most recent, salary cap hits.
Frans Nielsen gets the toughest zone starts by a large margain (-7.01%rel), but still manages to be close to as productive as the other players at 5v5. Karlsson gets the second toughest zone starts, with Nyqvist and Lee considerably sheltered in comparison to the two players (6.17%rel, 5.46%rel). Nielsen is 32, Karlsson is 23.
The argument could be made that Nyqvist and Lee are more offensive, but factor in powerplay time – which Karlsson doesn’t get – and you’re left with a point total of 19 for Lee and 28 for Nyqvist, while being given more favorable zone starts.
Under the current numbers, the Toronto Maple Leafs can offer up to $3,755,233 and only forfeit a 2nd round pick (2017).
With the Columbus Blue Jackets current salary cap situation (~$4.8M in space), and still needing to sign Seth Jones, they might just let the offer sheet come and Karlsson go. His value is worth the price of a second round pick, and the offer sheet might not have to exceed the $2.25-$2.5M range. That’s a good market value for a player with Karlsson’s numbers and effectiveness.
This scenario is taking advantage of poor management decisions by the Columbus Blue Jackets. Seth Jones is going to make big money and Alexander Wennberg is up for renewal next season. They are going to have a hard time working out the logistics to keep Karlsson in the fold, and the Toronto Maple Leafs could take advantage of it.
The Toronto Maple Leafs, like all other clubs, require depth. Karlsson brings even more quality depth down the middle to the Leafs, and it gives them the option to load up the top six with Nylander on the wing – which has been mentioned by several people, though I’m not sold on the idea.
Next: Rumors: Leafs Still Active On Andersen
Worst case scenario is the Toronto Maple Leafs could have one of the best fourth line centers in the league and be able to roll out a highly functional fourth line for over 10 minutes without blinking. Not many teams can say that.