Toronto Maple Leafs: The Debate On Size
The Toronto Maple Leafs have heard the “too small” narrative a lot over the last year as they switched their rebuild from “big” to “skilled”.
Some of the most common debates in the hockey world involve size and skill. Is the player too small to be in the NHL? The Toronto Maple Leafs heard this nonsense about Mitch Marner, as the most recent example. Even though he’s yet to debut you can look around the league at some of the top players and say he’ll be fine.
But you need a big, bad team to get through a playoff grind, right? I’m not so convinced. Let’s look at the 2016 NHL Playoffs.
*height and weight taken from hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com
*top nine/top four taken from Left Wing Lock last game line combinations
The Pittsburgh Penguins tore through the San Jose Sharks in the Stanley Cup Final with speed and skill. The six game series was more lopsided than the 4-2 finish suggests. They were the smallest (by weight) group of forwards and defenders in the final four.
Let’s measure up the average weight of top nine forwards and top four defenders for each of the Conference Finalists, as well as a makeshift Toronto Maple Leafs group of current players (named at the end of the post) who could be in for game one of 2016-2017.
The Penguins had seven forwards under 200 pounds, the Lightning had nine, the Sharks had five and the Blues had two. The Toronto Maple Leafs have six.
Surely the Penguins should have been beaten around. Maybe it was just the Eastern Conference and it’s non-tough ways like the West.
Of the top six teams in hits per game in the 2016 NHL Playoffs, four of them were from the Eastern Conference (NYR – 2nd, NYI – 3rd, WSH – 4th, FLA – 6th). You’ll notice two of those bruising teams were eliminated by the Penguins, the little guys. For arguments sake, LA (1st) and NSH (5th) were the two Western teams, whom were both beaten by San Jose. So let’s call the physical fight through each Conference a wash.
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Are the Toronto Maple Leafs smaller than all of them, they sure are. They’re also the only team whose group holds five forwards 22 & Under – four of which are 19 or younger right now.
Fabbri, Tierney, Drouin and Kucherov are the only forwards 22 or younger on all four Conference Finalists combined, one less than the Leafs themselves. As players develop with training they tend to get bigger, so four years down the road it’s like those Leafs averages go up, even with the same group.
How about height? Everyone needs a giant roster of 6’3″-6’4″ players, don’t they? Here are the numbers for the forwards, on all five teams, who are 6’0″ or shorter.
Penguins – 7 of 9
Lightning – 6 of 9
Sharks – 5 of 9
Blues – 5 of 9
Leafs – 6 of 9
Not much out of the ordinary there. The Toronto Maple Leafs seem to be on par with the amount of players who stand six-feet or under.
As far as defenders go, the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Sharks are the only two of the five to have all four top four defenders at least 6’1″ tall,
There are going to be variances in player size along the way, but skill wins over size every time. If a player is skilled and tall, great. Skilled and average? Still great. Skilled and 5’8″ like Tyler Johnson? You guessed it, still great.
Who would you rather have: 6’3″ Troy Brouwer, or 5’8″ Tyler Johnson?
Next: NHL Mock Draft Round Two
Building a team to be bigger and tougher than everyone else is an archaic format to lay your foundation on in today’s NHL. Speed, skill and possession have evolved from size, hits and fights to take valuable precedence in the game. The truth is, generally speaking, the averages of the four Conference Finals teams weren’t far off each other.
The only noticeably bigger team was the St. Louis Blues, with all four defenders and seven of nine forwards over 200 lbs. Maybe you can’t bully your way through the West with size after all.
Is it hard to build a team as fast as the Pittsburgh Penguins or Tampa Bay Lightning? Absolutely it is, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t do it. Connor Sheary is 5’8″, 175 lbs. Mitch Marner is 5″11, 163 lbs.
The difference in age is four years. I think Marner, and whoever else the Toronto Maple Leafs want to play, will be just fine. Connor Brown, listed three pounds lighter than Marner, looked fine when he was up.
Here are the mystery Toronto Maple Leafs top nine/top four group I used:
Top Nine: Matthews, Nylander, Kadri, Marner, JVR, Brown, Hyman, Komarov, Kapanen
Top Four: Marincin, Rielly, Zaitsev, Gardiner
After all of this, my point is there should be no size debate. There should be a talent debate. Which team is more talented? That’s the team that’s probably going to win a Championship.