Toronto Maple Leafs: Expectations For Marner/Matthews

The odds are pretty good that the Toronto Maple Leafs will be dressing both Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner for the 2016-2017 season.

What can we realistically expect from the Toronto Maple Leafs top prospects?

Let’s start with Auston Matthews, the soon to be Toronto Maple Leafs player.

Matthews played last season in the Swiss National League A for the ZSC Lions, posting 46 points in 36 games, for a point-per-game average of 1.278. Of those 46 points, 37 were primary points and 32 of the 46 point total were at even strength.

Using the projection coefficient from behindthenet.ca for the Swiss NLA (0.44), Matthews 2015-2016 season for Zurich equates to 46.1 points at the NHL level over an 82 game season.

His 32 even strength points converts to 31.2 over 82 games at the NHL level. His 37 primary points (all situations) turns over to 37.1 over 82 games in the NHL.

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Is it realistic to think that Auston Matthews could put up a point total (46.1) that would have been good enough for first on the Toronto Maple Leafs this season? I don’t see why not. Matthews isn’t going to be coming in and playing on the fourth line. He’s going to get big minutes for Toronto, including power play time.

Jack Eichel, in his draft year, had the equivalent of 48 NHL points in the NCAA Hockey East Division (0.33 coefficient from The Projection Project) and he ended up scoring 56 points as a rookie in the NHL the very next year. Players like Eichel and Matthews are stars, and stars score points.

Let’s move on to Mitch Marner.

Marner had 116 points in 57 games for the London Knights in the Ontario Hockey League this year, good for a 2.035 point-per-game average.

Taking the coefficient from The Projection Project for the OHL (0.30), Marner’s 116 points in 57 games for London translates to 50.1 points at the NHL level over an 82 game season.

Marner had 64 even strength points that turn over to 27.6 points in the NHL and his 90 primary points equates to 38.8 points at the NHL level.

Marner’s equivalent totals exceed Matthews is what probably jumps out the most. That’s a testament to how dominate Marner was in the OHL this year given the difference (0.14) in coefficient between the two players.

Now, is it realistic to think that Marner could outscore Matthews this year – and perhaps lead the Toronto Maple Leafs in scoring? Of course it is. We’re talking about a 50 point equivalent here. That’s not exactly shooting-for-the-moon outrageous. Marner is a very good prospect, and so is Matthews, and they could end up as linemates.

Next: Which Young Players Could Be Dealt?

Should we expect both Marner and Matthews to put up more points in their NHL rookie season than their equivalent points from last year? I don’t think that’s a fair expectation to place on either of the Toronto Maple Leafs top prospects in hockey hot-bed Toronto, but it’s not unrealistic.

The 46.1 and 50.1 are reasonable expectations given the talent level of both players. That’s a ballpark area at this point. If both end up with 40 points next year it still shouldn’t be viewed as a disappointment, but the range from the coefficients certainly aren’t far off the mark of what a high-end rookie ceiling should be at their age in today’s NHL.

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