Toronto Maple Leafs Offer Sheet Target: J.T. Miller

The Toronto Maple Leafs have limited options when it comes to handing out offer sheets, but there are a few players who might be worth considering.

J.T. Miller is one option the Toronto Maple Leafs could investigate a little bit when thinking about cheap acquisitions that better the team.

Miller was part of a New York Rangers group that wasn’t one of the leagues most puck-possession savvy teams, but didn’t fail too miserably in his quest to break even with underlying numbers.

The left-shot forward is a hybrid center/winger who has solid offensive even strength numbers might be a player who gets let go by the Rangers on an offer sheet. They’re likely more concerned with Chris Kreider given his larger role in the two-way game while still being able to produce at a high rate at 5v5.

Miller’s 1.89 P60 at even strength puts him in the same neighborhood as Max Domi (1.90), Daniel Sedin (1.86), and Nikita Kucherov (1.82) for 2015-2016. That’s considering relatively similar offensive zone start percentage. Those three players all joined Miller in the 1000-1100 TOI range at 5v5. We’ll use them as a comparison point to argue for Miller.

Miller also wasn’t carried by anyone of his linemates at evens in 2015-2016, holding his own and providing better CF% than his five most common linemates when they’re separated.

Even in a much tougher zone start deployment in 2014-2015 (2.49 ZSO%rel), Miller still put up a 1.50 P60. His overall 5v5 point totals would have looked better had he played in more than 58 games for the Rangers.

Here’s a look at how the four stack up for scoring chances and corsi-for, relative to their teammates.

And fenwick-against per 60.

Miller’s general play isn’t that far off the three players mentioned, all of whom would likely be ranked higher than Miller on a wish-list – well, maybe not the aging Sedin, but you get my drift.

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It’s worth noting that the separation in total points is influenced by the power play numbers of the three comparison players. Miller played significantly less time with the man advantage (over 50% less than all three), which resulted in much less extra points beyond 5v5.

In addition to Miller’s decent impact stats, he also finished third on the Rangers in hits with 174, which would have placed him 2nd on the Toronto Maple Leafs behind only Leo Komarov.

J.T. Miller is a pretty good hockey player that could be a productive player for the Toronto Maple Leafs, and potentially lined up with Nazem Kadri. He’s also only 22 years old, so there’s room to develop, which, under Mike Babcock, could mean a higher ceiling defensively.

The only hiccup in the idea is that the maximum Toronto can offer sheet Miller is ~$3.75M AAV. He’s likely looking at a bridge deal from the always-in-cap-trouble Rangers, so would a 2 year deal at $3.75M be enough to entice his signature? It’s worth a shot. Would the New York Rangers match it? They should, but that depends on their own financial forecast.

Next: Forget About Dvorak and Tkachuk

If you’re a fan of draft pick probabilities, then you’ll probably agree that a second round price for a player who has proven success and effectiveness is a small fee to pay. Second round draft picks have a percentage range success rate to play 100 games of 28.6%-39%, and the Toronto Maple Leafs currently hold seven second round picks in the next three drafts. One is worth spending on a player like J.T. Miller.

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