Toronto Maple Leafs: Sheltering Nylander Is Just Fine
Toronto Maple Leafs forward William Nylander’s first 22 NHL games can be considered a success, but he was sheltered heavily and that can’t be ignored – or can it?
Mike Babcock talked about William Nylander learning a 200 foot game for the Toronto Maple Leafs and he was deployed in a sheltered role during his 22 game span to minimize the difficulty with the transition to the NHL.
Nylander held a 15.4 ZSO%rel, good enough for 22nd among all forwards in the NHL who played at least 283 minutes at 5v5. There were 410 qualifying players (war-on-ice).
That’s partly due to the fact he was a 19 year old offensive star entering the National Hockey League for the first time and partly because, well, he’s there to create scoring chances. The only other qualifying Toronto Maple Leafs player above Nylander was James van Riemsdyk. He came in at 11th out of 410.
Now, entering next year, what will Nylander’s offensive zone start numbers look like relative to the rest of the Toronto Maple Leafs?
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An enormous relative zone start percentage isn’t necessarily a bad thing, it just means that the player has about as much trust in the defensive zone as a pick-pocket does in a crowd of tourists.
Not everyone needs to win a Selke Trophy.
Five of the top ten players for highest offensive zone start percentage go by the names of Forsberg, Panarin, Tarasenko, Kane and Malkin. Just behind JVR, at #12 overall, is John Tavares. Panarin, Tarasenko, Kane and Tavares also held P60 totals that were north of 2.1. Malkin and Forsberg came in at 1.86 and 1.80 respectively.
William Nylander’s maximum value lies in his ability to generate scoring chances while he’s on the ice and not necessarily if he can start in his own end on par with the rest of his teammates. Artemi Panarin was the fourth highest sheltered player in the NHL (min 283 TOI at 5v5) and he’s a Calder Finalist. The Blackhawks don’t need Panarin to be Jonathan Toews. The Toronto Maple Leafs don’t need William Nylander to be something he’s not.
Now, maybe he gets better defensively for the Toronto Maple Leafs. He’s a smart hockey player, that’s bound to happen over time regardless. My point is the issue shouldn’t be forced if it doesn’t have to be. Patrick Kane scores at an amazing clip consistently at even strength, and he seven of his nine seasons under 14.91 ZSO%rel.
This is something to keep in mind for Mitch Marner – if he plays next year. Marner has drawn comparisons to Patrick Kane and he could be a great linemate for Nylander, which means he’s going to be in line for some heavy offensive zone starts.
A player like Auston Matthews is probably better style-suited to play closer to 0% ZSO%rel than Nylander is. Sandwiching Nylander between Matthews and Kadri in the center position lineup will cover enough defensive zone starts that everyone will go about their business none the wiser about Nylander’s sheltering.
My guess is that Nylander gets a little more defensive responsibility next year, but I can’t see it being that much of an increase if it does at all. Scoring chances and production. That’s been Nylander’s job throughout his entire hockey career and he’s pretty good at it. Why change a good thing?