Toronto Maple Leafs: Most Teams Find Starters Outside The Draft
By Tim Chiasson
Goaltending is the most mysterious position in the National Hockey League, and the Toronto Maple Leafs search for that elusive starter likely won’t be over any time soon.
It’s easy to point out that the Toronto Maple Leafs traded away James Reimer this year who, without question, had number one goaltender numbers this year. What’s harder, for some, is to admit that he wasn’t always like that.
Reimer’s career best 94.03 save percentage at 5v5 highlights an incredible year by the Toronto Maple Leafs fourth round draft pick from 2006. His second best career totals came in 2010-2011 when he posted a 93.31 5v5 save percentage. The four seasons in between he posted between 91.27 and 92.45. The 91.27 puts him in the basement for starting goalies and the 92.45 puts him in the middle of the pack, certainly nothing extraordinary.
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To Reimer’s advantage, though, people have short memories. Everyone sees the 2015-2016, 40 game (career high), James Reimer. In all honesty, Reimer isn’t some super-hero goaltender if you look at his career numbers. He’s an inconsistent goalie who has played over 37 games once with varying levels of success – but, hey, the Maple Leafs did draft him. Actually drafting and holding on to a goaltender isn’t that common. Most teams in the league this year had starters who were drafted by other clubs, or weren’t drafted at all.
Twenty-six goaltenders played at least 1800 minutes at 5v5 this year. Of those 26, only 10 were playing for the team that drafted them. Twelve were suiting up for a different team other than the one they were drafted by and four goaltenders who hit the 1800 minute mark were undrafted.
Eight of the 26 goalies were first round draft picks, of which two were still playing for the team that drafted them. 57.7% of the 26 goalies were drafted in the third round or lower – including undrafted.
Finding a starting goalie is probably the most difficult task by any scouting department because the position is so unpredictable. This years 5v5 save percentage leader (min 1800 TOI), was none other than New York Rangers 7th round draft pick Henrik Lundqvist. This year’s 5v5 save percentage basement king was second overall pick in 2002, Kari Lehtonen.
At some point the narrative of “he plays behind a horrid defense” has to go out the window. A goalie has to make stops, it’s that simple. Having a sub-92% save percentage at 5v5 isn’t your defense’s fault – it’s yours as the goalie. You just can’t stop shots.
So, how are you supposed to find these great – or at least consistent – starters in the draft? Maybe you don’t. Maybe you just let other teams spend their hard earned draft picks while you sit in the bushes waiting to pounce via trade on a team that has other needs, or wants salary cap space.
Poor goaltending can kill you if you can’t score goals like the 2015-2016 Dallas Stars. Sitting around waiting in the hopes that your home-grown goaltender is going to break through might not be the best course of action as you enter the competitive stages of your long-term outlook. Overpaying terrible goaltenders is also another path you probably don’t want to choose.
With every draft pick teams use they’re taking a gamble – unless it’s a Connor McDavid type pick – but no position is more of a gamble than goaltending. You’re more likely to find a diamond in the rough skater faster than you are a diamond in the rough goaltender in the draft.
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For goalies, the better route might just be to let someone else do the work and not use a draft pick, especially in the first two rounds, on an extreme unknown. It’s much harder to look at an 18-year-old goaltender with honesty and say ‘this guy is the real deal’ than it is when he’s 21 or 22. Teams give up on goalies or move on for other reasons, that’s proven by this year’s drafted starter percentage. Why not just wait it out until someone’s ready to pull pin on someone.