Toronto Maple Leafs: Physicality Versus Possession

The Toronto Maple Leafs new regime is geared more towards possession statistics, steering away from the rough and tumble theory of years past under previous tyrants.

If the Toronto Maple Leafs don’t out-hit the opponents, or be a more physical team, how does that relate to their possession numbers? More specifically, for the purpose of this post, score-adjusted corsi?

Joel Quenneville, the three-time Stanley Cup winning coach of the modern dynasty Chicago Blackhawks, doesn’t seem to care about being physically out-hit.

That tweet made me wonder. What’s the Toronto Maple Leafs relationship in 2015-2016 with being out-hit and having better possession metrics? After reading the tweet, it made sense to me but I figured I’d sift through the 82 game sheets for the Toronto Maple Leafs 2015-2016 season under Mike Babcock to prove Quenville’s theory.

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Hockey is certainly a physical sport but after going through the sheets for this seasons games the good didn’t out-weigh the bad for trying to hit everything that moved during a game of hockey. The value lies in skill. Let’s look at some numbers.

The 2015-2016 Toronto Maple Leafs finished 15th in score-adjusted Corsi with 50.5%. That’s a 5.3% increase over the 2014-2015 campaign – all with the switch of a coach. You could argue that it means these metrics don’t matter, or you could say the players are just that bad. I’m taking the latter. Babcock is a genius, but he’s not a miracle worker.

Of the 82 games the Toronto Maple Leafs played they had a higher SAC than their opposition in 41 of the games. In those 41 games, they had a higher SAC while laying an even or lower amount of hits in 25 of them. That means that in 61% of the games the Toronto Maple Leafs had a higher score-adjusted Corsi percentage, they didn’t out-hit their opponent.

So much for the Bay Street Bullies. Only 39% of the time did they out-hit (or match hit) their opponent while having better possession metrics.

So, when Joel Quenneville – the 3-time Stanley Cup winning coach – says he doesn’t care about being hit 70 times a game, there’s a good reason for it. That reason is possession and possession wins more often than not, as evidence by Coach Q and the modern dynasty Blackhawks.

Here’s a look at where the Chicago Blackhawks ranked in regular season hits during the three years they hoisted Lord Stanley in the past six seasons.

The goal isn’t to out-hit your opponent and prove some pre-historic notion that you can pulverize your counterpart into submission. It should be about forcing them to do that to you. The results will, more often than not, tip in your favor. There’s a notion that the Western Conference is a physical battle and it takes a tough team to leave that Conference and make the finals. That’s nonsense. The Hawks have done it skillfully, and better than any other Western team.

Do I enjoy huge hits? Of course, who doesn’t? That doesn’t mean that out-hitting a team is more valuable than playing a controlled, skilled game. As a fan I want to be entertained with wins and Stanley Cups, not highlight reel hits and top five draft picks that lead to a dead end. The Toronto Maple Leafs shift in theory is a positive one.

Next: Is Babcock The Key To Stamkos?

Being a physical team and broadcasting that theory to the world might make you seem like a better hockey club but, in reality, you’re most likely worse for wear if it’s true. It’s 2016, skill in hockey outweighs the ability to hit a moving target.