Toronto Maple Leafs Roster Battles: Tyler Bozak Or Nazem Kadri As First-Line Centre?

The Toronto Maple Leafs haven’t had a bona fide number-one centre since Mats Sundin.

Nik Antropov, Matt Stajan and Kyle Wellwood are among the marquee names that have centered the Leafs’ top line since Sundin signed with the Vancouver Canucks in December 2008, and while they all enjoyed decent production in the blue and white, you wouldn’t call any of them true number-one centres in the National Hockey League.

In 2009, Tyler Bozak signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs out of the University of Denver, and started his NHL career with a bang, scoring 27 points in 37 games centering the Leafs’ top line as a 23-year-old. Bozak’s success during his partial rookie year gave his coaches and fans unreasonable expectations, as he basically never left the top-line spot, despite growing evidence he shouldn’t be there.

HERO charts via @MimicoHero and OwnThePuck.

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Bozak’s production suggests he’s a third-line centre at best. And you have to remember he did all this with one of the best scorers in the league in Phil Kessel stapled to his wing, and another high-end winger in James van Riemsdyk on the other side.

The flip side is both of those guys are horrible defensively, so it’s difficult to know which player was the biggest drag on that line possession-wise. However, centres tend to bear the bulk of responsibility defensively on a line, and therefore I think it’s justified to give a healthy dose of the blame to Bozak.

With that being said, here’s Nazem Kadri’s HERO chart:

Everything about Kadri screams low-end first-line centre, and he’s never had the benefit of playing with Kessel and van Riemsdyk. Kadri isn’t great defensively either, but he makes up for that by generating a ton of shots when he’s on the ice.

Kadri’s most underrated skill might be his ability to draw penalties. He’s averaged 2.3 penalties-drawn-per-60 minutes over the last three seasons (via BehindTheNet), which is huge. When you’re giving your team that many power play opportunities per game, you’re giving your team, theoretically, a lot of high-quality scoring chances.

Tyler Bozak is also carrying a cap-hit of $4.2-million over the next three seasons, while Nazem Kadri is still a restricted free agent and signed a one-year, $4.1-million contract in the offseason. Kadri is also 24 years old while Bozak is 29, so Kadri has room to grow while Bozak’s best days are likely behind him. With all this said, it’s pretty clear who’s the number-one centre on the Leafs.

But let’s take this a step further. Should Tyler Bozak even be the Leafs’ second-line centre? Here’s Peter Holland’s HERO chart:

Holland has played mainly fourth-line minutes in a Leafs’ uniform. The 24-year-old had career highs in minutes (14:31 per game), goals (11) and points (25) last season, which shows he has offensive potential. In fact, given his per-60 rates over the last three seasons, he’s regularly over performed his spot in the lineup.

This suggests to me that Holland would do just fine in a second-line centre spot. I think he could at least give the Leafs what Tyler Bozak has produced, and with better linemates, his production could soar.

The Leafs have a glut at centre right now with Shawn Matthias, Daniel Winnik and Nick Spaling all fighting for spots. Bozak, given his age, ability and contract, should be the odd-man out and is a top candidate to be traded. His contract and limited no-trade clause could make that difficult, however, and is probably the reason he hasn’t been traded yet.

In a rebuilding year, you could make the case the best thing to do is showcase Bozak on the top line and hope he plays well enough that some team takes a chance on him. I don’t think the Leafs will be hesitant to get his salary off the books if given the opportunity.

My response to that is, despite it being a rebuilding year, this is nonetheless a huge year for Kadri and Holland. Both players are nearing their primes, and both players are on one-year deals. The Leafs need to see what these guys can do in scoring roles, and figure out if they’re part of the team’s long-term plans with William Nylander, Mitch Marner and others waiting in the wings.

It’s pretty clear Bozak isn’t a part of those plans. This team needs to cut off the dead weight of the previous regimes and move forward, and that means getting rid of Bozak, or at the very least playing him on one of the bottom two lines.

Next: Is Garret Sparks Getting His Chance?

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