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Toronto Maple Leafs: Bridge vs Long-Term For Rielly

ByTim Chiasson|

The Toronto Maple Leafs are going to find themselves faced with a tough decision after 2015-2016

Salaries are rising quicker than the cap itself so it puts much more pressure on the GM’s to get bang-for-buck deals done whenever they can. The first big test of the new Toronto Maple Leafs front office from a dollar standpoint is going to be Morgan Rielly.

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When Rielly’s contract is up after the 2015-2016 season Toronto is going to be at a crossroad. Do they extend him long-term? Or do they take another bridge deal to the table?

This season will make that determination much more clear, but Rielly trended up from year one to year two and he’s likely to do the same in this season.

Ask Marc Bergevin if he’d like to go back in time and ink P.K. Subban to a long-term deal instead of a bridge contract. Bergevin was rumored to have been able to get Subban on a 5×5 or 6×6 deal, which would have provided $3M-$4M in cap savings.

It’s a gamble to take, but if you believe in the player and you look at the statistics – all of them – and come to the conclusion that this player keeps getting better, then what are you waiting for? The player to get his hands on the keys to the money truck?

Morgan Rielly might be part of a new tactic – gambling on high-ceiling talents without a bridge deal. If it works then the cap savings will be as close as you can get to making the old 12 year deal to lower the cap hit. You have to be damn sure about the player, though. In Subban’s case, the entire hockey world could see he was worth the rumored 5×5/6×6. Bergevin waiting to be sure that he was sure cost him.

Rielly will be 22 when his contract expires, which means a maximum eight year deal – for example – will take him to age 30.

The benefit of a bridge deal allows a maximum deal to stretch further into a players UFA years, but is the potential cap jump worth it? Perhaps a six year deal, that takes Rielly to age 28, could prove more beneficial than having a two year bridge plus a six-eight year contract on top (at a higher cost) that takes him to age 30-32.

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In years five and six of the deal the potential discount could be extremely useful as the Toronto Maple Leafs are expecting to compete by those years.

Morgan Rielly will be eligible for unrestricted free agency at age 26 (seven seasons), which means a six year deal would eat two years of his UFA – and high peak UFA – years.

If he breaks out next year, like he has the potential to, the Toronto Maple Leafs will be wise to avoid toying with a bridge deal. Rielly’s been evaluated for two years and this year will be an important gauge of his potential as a first pairing defender.

Even though the Toronto Maple Leafs spent this off-season avoiding contracts in excess of two years like it was the plague, don’t assume that’s going to be the case with Morgan Rielly. Call it the Subban factor. Calgary didn’t risk a bridge with Dougie Hamilton, likely based on the same fear Rielly might instill in Toronto next year.

With his skill-set and ceiling, I’d be terrified a two year bridge deal would yield north of $7M AAV on the following contract. Show me deals can work, but they can also get shoved right back down your throat.

If Morgan Rielly trends up again this year – because this year is important in the decision – what would you do? Bridge or long-term?

Next: Grading The Off-Season

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