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Phil Kessel Trade: Did The Maple Leafs Get Fair Value?

By Tim Chiasson |
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Jan 24, 2015; Columbus, OH, USA; Phil Kessel (81) of the Toronto Maple Leafs on the red carpet before the 2015 NHL All Star Game skills competition at Nationwide Arena. Credit: Russell LaBounty-USA TODAY Sports

In this week’s roundtable we share thoughts on whether or not the Toronto Maple Leafs got fair value in the Phil Kessel trade.

In case you missed it – because you were under a rock on an island in the middle of nowhere – here’s the full Phil Kessel to Pittsburgh deal one more time.

That’s how the trade broke down. There are several conditions on the first round pick from Pittsburgh, including the Penguins having it lottery protected for two years. If the Penguins miss the playoffs this year, the pick moves to 2017. Since that’s not going to happen, it’s irrelevant.

So, did the Toronto Maple Leafs receive fair value for Phil Kessel? Scroll through the slideshow to see our answers and have your say in the poll at the end.

Next: Cynthia's Take

Apr 8, 2015; Columbus, OH, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs right wing Phil Kessel (81) against the Columbus Blue Jackets at Nationwide Arena. The Jackets won 5-0. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Cyn

No, we didn’t get fair value. Wait for it…

It wasn’t the worst deal in the world. But, in the NHL world, for a player like Kessel who was actually preforming up to “Kessel Star” potential then by the terms of this trade we would’ve been completely fleeced.

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At end of the day Kessel hadn’t been preforming for the Leafs. He pretty much phoned it in the last half of the season. The Leafs got what they could for him – what other teams saw on paper, the Phil Kessel from this season, not the “true” Phil Kessel.

I’m sure all the un-coachable rumors that have been circulating in the media didn’t help his case either. Who wants to have to push a player who is making 8 million dollars to perform? Shouldn’t he already be there? Isn’t that why he earned that payday?

If the Leafs were smart (in my opinion) they would’ve held onto him until the mid-season trade deadline and have attempted to raise his value. I’m not saying that Babcock could’ve worked miracles on the “un-coachable Kessel”, but could his value have really declined any more?

Yes, these look like promising prospects but prospects are just prospects and until they start performing at the NHL level. There really isn’t a good sample size at all to prove their true potential. There have been many “promising” prospects that have disappeared into obscurity over the years – not to mention the Leafs aren’t exactly known for player development. I find the trade extremely risky.

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Pittsburgh, on the other hand,  gets a guy who has shown high production abilities but just hasn’t performed as of late and has fallen into a funk. Toronto media is especially hard on the players. In Pittsburgh he won’t have that pressure on him as the star with Crosby and Malkin skating next to him. It’s the Crosby show over there.

The top five in Pittsburgh is going to be lethal.

Also, with Gary Roberts being hired to work with Kessel, he will undoubtedly be whipped into shape. There is no playing around with Gary – who is a fitness freak. It’s a shame that Kessel is still in our conference. In typical Leafs fashion, there is no doubt in my mind that he will be lighting us (and the NHL for 50+ goals) up next season. It’s a curse that has reoccurred with all of our ex-players.

No, we didn’t get the worst deal in the world but I feel like it could’ve been better. Luckily we retained minimal salary with $1.25 million per season for the remainder of his contract.  It could’ve been much worse. I was thinking it would’ve been a minimum of $2M. With an extremely tight cap we should be grateful for this.

If Kessel was actually the Kessel we thought he would be, and had bought into this as Leafs fans hoped, there would’ve been a much bigger return for him. However, if that was the case we wouldn’t have moved him anyway.

Short term this is going to hurt us but in the long term this trade could end up being extremely beneficial. Let’s be happy with the two draft picks and move on to focusing on developing these promising young prospects. This is a rebuild after all. Let’s focus on the future not on the now.

Next: Robb Ellis' Take

Feb 26, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Phil Kessel (81) carries the puck against the Philadelphia Flyers during the second period at the Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Robb Ellis

That’s really a tough one to answer. It always is when you’re trading away a current star to build for the future. If you read my latest article that went up on Tuesday then you will know how I feel about Phil Kessel these days.

I believe that it was imperative that he does not return if the Leafs want to move ahead with the rebuild and leave the past behind. For that reason, I look at this trade with a different set of glasses than if the Leafs weren’t in full scorched earth rebuild mode.

Phil is one of the most offensively gifted players in the league today. Unfortunately, there is no room for that type of one-dimensional player on the new Mike Babcock coached Leafs. A look at Kessel’s stats compared to the Leafs’ other “franchise” players over the past 25 years shows a very comparable statline; until you get to the plus/minus column.

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Gilmour 392 GP- 131g- 311a- 442p- +55

Sundin 981 GP- 420g- 567a- 987p- +94

Kessel 446 GP- 181g- 213a- 394p- -79

Is it unfair to use plus/minus to evaluate Kessel? Maybe, but it’s a glaring stat when you look at how uninterested Kessel was without the puck. My main concern with Phil is that he literally gave up last season and that is just unacceptable.

By now, you already know the details of the trade and, by the reactions of some Leaf fans on Twitter, you would think that they gave Phil away for nothing.

In reality, they got what they wanted: a top young forward prospect in Kapanen, another young prospect in Harrington, a current roster player in Spaling that can be moved for future assets and some picks (one being a 1st-rounder).

Who won the deal?

Well, if you go by the rule that the team who gets the best player wins then obviously Pittsburgh wins the deal. In fact, he will probably score 40-50 goals next season playing with Crosby or Malkin.

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However, I look at this deal with an addition by subtraction mentality.

As talented as he is, Kessel is not the type of personality that I want setting the wrong example for the youth movement that has begun within this organization at this time. It’s quite obvious that Shanahan and Babcock feel the same way or he’d still be a Maple Leaf. We, as Leaf fans, should trust the direction that they are taking with this club.

Let’s be patient with Kapanen and Harrington; trust Hunter in how he uses the picks. Let’s watch Dubas flip Spaling for yet another pick at the deadline and we’ll re-evaluate this trade in five years and I’m sure we’ll all see it differently.

Of course, we can all sit back and laugh if Kessel takes his current work ethic to Pennsylvania with him.

You know, the same way Bruins fans laughed at us on September 18, 2009.

Next: Torrin Batchelor's Take

Feb 7, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Phil Kessel (81) goes to take a shot against the Edmonton Oilers at the Air Canada Centre. Toronto defeated Edmonton 5-1. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Torrin Batchelor

So the Phil Kessel situation is finally resolved.

I won’t lie, when the news first broke I yelled, I panicked, I briefly thought about finally abandoning the ship we call the Maple Leafs. This was a top tier ELITE goal scorer, in his prime, under contract and we threw him away for peanuts?

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Then I calmed down. I did what we constantly have to do as Leaf fans and took a step back and reassessed. The Toronto Maple Leafs needed to trade Phil Kessel to send a message to the rest of the team, to change the leadership core and to kick-start the rebuild because like it or not Phil “The Thrill” Kessel has been the face of our team for years now.

No one was going to believe the Leafs were actually committed to a rebuild had Kessel stayed on the roster for much longer. The thing is, all 29 other GM’s knew the Leafs needed to trade Kessel. All 29 other GM’s knew the Leafs had an inexperienced management team that needed to get Kessel out the door sooner than later so they could move on – so all 29 other teams low balled them.

The upsetting thing is not what we actually received for Kessel, I’ll take a closer look in two seconds, it’s that we didn’t get the MASSIVE package the media had been promising us for weeks.

Kasperi Kapanen was ranked by many as a top ten talent going into last season’s draft, but fell to the Penguins at 22nd overall. He is only four months older than 2015 top ten prospect Mikko Rantanen and by all accounts has some elite level skill and speed. He can skate like the wind, has a pretty quick and accurate wrist shot and elite hockey IQ – does that sound like any other prospects the Leafs have brought in since Mark Hunter and Kyke Dubas came on board?

Kapanen fits the type of player the Leafs are trying to build up their organization with, and that’s perfect. He has a bit more of a physical dimension to his game then many of our prospects and slips securely into the No.3 slot on our top prospect ranks behind Mitch Marner and William Nylander.

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Scott Harrington is another player with ties to Hunter and the London Knights organization. He brings a stay-at-home, stand up character and leadership element to our D-prospect group that we were lacking. Percy, Nilsson, Finn are all puck movers and Loov although he’s a physical beast and locker room jokester isn’t captain material. Scott Harrington is the kind of guy to lead guys into trenches and come out the otherwise with ten stitches and some missing teeth but also the “W”.

First round picks never hurt and getting a 3rd as well is a nice touch. The Shanaplan still very much revolved around getting Mark Hunter as many picks as possible to work his magic with.

Nick Spaling is just a salary dump, but he is the kind of high-character, hard-working grinder that Toronto fans love to fall madly in love with and he will be a fan favourite sooner than later.

The only piece of this deal that isn’t to like is retaining 15% of Kessel’s cap hit for the last 7 years of his deal. That’s 1.2M of dead cap for the next 7 years. It doesn’t seem like a big deal now, and probably won’t truly affect the Leafs until years five, six and seven when they are hopefully starting to contend and need to spend as much as possible.

Also giving Pittsburgh back the 2nd in 2016 that we got for Daniel Winnik kind of sucks, but with the Leafs resigning Winnik yesterday makes it a free pick anyways.

Basically, the Leafs got the best return they had on the table and recouped three grade “A” pieces back in Harrington, 2016 1st and Kapanen.

At this point in the rebuild the Leafs need as many high end prospects as possible. This is a good start, also gives us 6.8M in extra cap space to take back bad contracts in Phaneuf+Lupul+Bozak deals to maximize our return for them.

Next: Tim Chiasson's Take

Jan 25, 2015; Columbus, OH, USA; Team Foligno forward Phil Kessel (81) of the Toronto Maple Leafs controls the puck against Team Toews defenseman Shea Weber (6) of the Nashville Predators in the second period in the 2015 NHL All Star Game at Nationwide Arena. Mandatory Credit: Russell LaBounty-USA TODAY Sports

Tim Chiasson

No, they didn’t.

It’s pretty safe to say the Toronto Maple Leafs wanted Phil Kessel traded more than they let on.

It’s not an entirely terrible deal, but it’s definitely not fair value for an elite goal scorer like Phil Kessel. Had the Maple Leafs not retained any salary, or kept the 2nd round pick, this deal would be closer to fair value – but still a bit off.

Kasperi Kapanen is the best forward prospect the Pittsburgh Penguins had – but put this perspective. The Penguins have one of the worst prospect pools in the NHL because of constant deadline deals. Kapanen is a big fish in a small pond, and the Leafs are putting a lot of chips down in his future success at the NHL level.

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Scott Harrington is a familiar face for Mark Hunter, but he’s no top-pairing projection so there’s still significant work to be done on his development.

Part of the problem I have with this deal is where Kessel went. It’s plausible that the Penguins pick ends up being the 30th overall if they finally remain healthy for a season. That’s simply not good enough value in a first round pick for Phil Kessel.

I do believe in what the front office is doing and I trust Mark Hunter and Kyle Dubas to seek out talent and good fits, but they missed the boat on this deal and Pittsburgh walks away with a shiny new toy for Sidney Crosby – this one already established as a premier player.

In the end, the Leafs should have waited to trade Kessel. His value wasn’t going to decline any more than it had (apparently) already. Until we see where Kapanen, Harrington and the first round pick fit with the team in 3-5 years this deal should be considered an accidental discharge from the rifle Shanahan used to gun down the entire scouting staff.

Next: Bozak Should Follow Kessel This Summer

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