Phil Kessel: Anatomy Of A Leafs Trade

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Is it time to move Phil Kessel? What is Phil Kessel worth? Is he the final domino to fall in Shanahan’s “scorched earth” campaign? Where should he be traded too? Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve started a new feature here at EditorInLeaf.com ; breaking down the anatomy of a trade involving a different piece of the Leafs core every episode. We’ll look at rumoured trades and teams that insiders say are interested, as well as one or two that haven’t been mentioned but make sense from a prospect/salary cap/team need perspective. We’ll break down what the Leafs would need for each player and then break down possible trades with each of the rumoured teams.

Anatomy Of A Phil Kessel Trade

Phil “The Thrill” Kessel. Where do we even begin with this elite goal scorer but “apparently” problematic dressing room character? Phil the out of shape, gym-adverse sniper who hasn’t missed a game since he played his first as a Leaf back in 2009-2010. Kessel the 6 time 30+ goal scorer (including the pro-rated 2012 lockout season).

Kessel, the guy who has no heart and you can’t win with, but yet has 21 points in 22 playoff games, and was the ONLY player in the top 10 in scoring three years in a row (2011-2014).

What Is Phil Kessel Worth?

Now to get to the age-old, will be talked to death until the moment he gets moved and then over-analyzed to death for years afterwards… What is Phil Kessel worth?

First we’ll take a look at earlier trades of star players with comparable situations with Kessel. So we have some com parables to play with.

Let’s establish some ground rules;

Has to be within a few years of Kessel in age
Has to be a Star Winger
Preferably long-term, high cap hit commitment

Prolific goal scorer with a bit of a one-dimensional game, he was a few years older than Kessel at the time of the trade but otherwise very similar player. Now Vanek was going to be a UFA so that is a hit to the comparisons here. An older vet 30 goal scorer who admittedly benefited from playing with Tavares, a 1st round pick in a VERY deep draft and a 2nd round pick for a player with similar skill sets to Kessel gives us a framework to begin to see a trade happening.

One of the better returns that we can hope for. Silfverberg is a 200ft player capable of playing a shutdown game and has some untapped offensive potential. Noesen has not turned into an NHL player as of yet but has the potential to be a 2nd line scorer and the real prize was the Senators having a miserable year and getting the 10th overall pick that turned into hulking power forward Nick Ritchie. Young NHL roster player, high-end prospect, 1st round pick (inside the top 10 as a bonus)

Rick Nash had a big time 7.8M contract with 6 years left to play off. Although he is known as a goal scorer (5X 30 and another 3X 40 goal seasons) he has never hit 80 points, and only once hit 70. Despite his showings for Team Canada; he has a history as a playoff under performer, posting 32pts in 60 NHL playoff games.

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Brandon Dubinsky, at the time was considered an under performer and a bit of a salary dump, but has turned into a capable top6 forward for Columbus. Anisimov has mostly been a 3rd line player, but has shown the ability to play up the lineup when injuries arise.

Tim Erixon (the recently re-signed Leaf) is now on his 5th team after once being a promising young blue liner and will only hold down an NHL roster spot with the Leafs this season because of the expected exodus of NHL level talent in front of him. The 2013 1st round pick turned into Kerby Rychel, who the Blue Jakcets have apparently tried to trade a half-dozen times already. While Rychel isn’t a pro yet, all indicators are he will be a quality offensive piece on an NHL’s team 2nd or 3rd line. So 1 top 6 center, 1 top 9 center, 1 young defensive prospect and a 1st round pick for a prolific goal scorer in his prime with a long, expensive contract… sound familiar?

Carter was playing mostly as a winger on Mike Richard’s line in Philly at the time of this trade, but technically I broke my 2nd rule, I know. Jakub Voracek at the time of this deal had been a relatively, underwhelming NHL player, but really broke out with the Flyers and Claude Giroux as a running mate, while Jeff Carter went on to win 2 Stanley Cup rings. The first round pick turned into defensive stalwart and all around under appreciated center Sean Couturier. This is the kind of home run trade you can only hope for in a Kessel deal.

Next: Who Wants Him?

Phil Kessel has reportedly submitted an 8 team NTC list as of last July.

Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Who Wants Phil Kessel?

News broke a few weeks ago that Kessel had submitted his list of 8 teams that he can be traded too, as per his limited No Trade Clause (NTC). That list included the Minnesota Wild, Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins, Boston Bruins, Montreal Canadiens, Chicago Blackhawks, Los Angeles Kings and New York Rangers.

Bob McKenzie summed it up best:

“I think the list was ostensibly put together probably to places that: A) He would be prepared to play if he had to, and B) places that are salary capped out… I think that the list – for the most part – was designed to make his modified no-trade as close to a full no-trade as possible.”

A cursory glance of the teams on the list confirms Bob’s suspicions pretty quickly. Chicago is going to have to deal away several players just to get under the cap with Toews+Kane’s new extensions kicking in. LA and Boston are in the same boat as Chicago. The Wild aren’t much-better off, but are not hurting for scoring wingers and in fact may have too many as is.

The Rangers were recently reported to have considered trading away Rick Nash for cap reasons, so wouldn’t consider adding Kessel. With Malkin, Crosby, Letang and Fleury the Pens have far too much tied up in too few players already and although Kessel would instantly be the front-runner for the Rocket Richard Trophy riding shotgun to Crosby and Malkin… it just doesn’t make sense to deplete depth from an already top-heavy team.

That leaves us with the Boston Bruins, Philadelphia Flyers, Montreal Canadiens and Minnesota Wild from Kessel’s old NTC approved list. I say old, because he would’ve submitted it before last July 1st as required by his NTC and there is every chance his list has changed since then.

Phil Kessel has also been linked to the Nashville Predators who needed a scoring boost last season, add in the NY Islanders to push them into cup contender status and you have your window of teams with the best fits.

Most of the deals that we looked at tend to follow the same format;

1st Round Pick

Young NHL Roster Player

Top Young Prospect

So let’s base most of our potential Kessel trades on that assumption of a return.

Next: City Of Brotherly Love

Matt Read is one of the many Flyers who could benefit from Phil Kessel joining he team.

Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Philadelphia’s Level Of Interest In Kessel: 3/5 Interested But Not Desperate

Cap Situation:

Philly has roughly 69.3M committed to next season cap. Leaving them with about 2M in cap space. This isn’t taking into account putting Chris Pronger and his 4.9M onto Long-Term Injured Reserve, giving them roughly 6M to improve their team.

Roster/Contract situation:

11 forwards signed. 9 Defenceman – including Chris Pronger. 1 Goalie.

The Flyers do have some big time contracts coming up next season in Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier and Micheal Raffl, but get some cap relief with Luke Schenn and Niklas Grossman coming off the books.

Assets the Leafs would want:

Highlighted by top prospects Travis Sanheim (Led all WHL D in scoring), Hulking Team Canada Dman Samuel Morin, the slippery smooth skating Dman Shayne Gostisbehere and warrior leader Scott Laughton.

Add in the young and extremely physical bottom pairing D Radko Gudas, Brayden Schenn who is still coming into his own as a power forward, the aforementioned defensive stalwart Sean Couturier and of course their 1st round pick in this year’s draft at 7th overall.

Proposed Flyers Trade:

Why it would work:

Although the Flyers had high-flying scorers like Giroux, Voracek and Simmonds, they often suffered from a lack of secondary scoring.

Why it wouldn’t work:

Most of what the Flyers get in this trade is Phil Kessel, and while he is awesome offensively and will massively help with their secondary scoring issues, this trade is a overpayment for the Flyers. To get this deal going the Flyers would most like need to drop one of Brayden, Sanheim or the 7th OA pick from the deal and get another asset back from the Leafs like Jake Gardiner. This is a dream return on the Leafs half of the equation, but really the only basis for this trade is Kessel’s NTC approved list having Philly on it.

Next: Blue and White.... and Red?

Could Kessel to Montreal give the canadiens the scoring punch they’ve been missing? Would Carey Price finally get the support he has been dying for?

Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

Montreal Canadiens’ Level Of Interest In Kessel: 4/5 Very Interested

Cap/Roster Situation:

The Habs sit at roughly 66.5M, giving them roughly 4.9 in cap space.

Only Alex Galchenyuk, Manny Malholtra, Bryan Flynn and Jared Tinordi need to be resigned, and Galchenyuk is the only one who could create a cap problem. Tom Gilbert, Tomas Plekanecs, Brandon Prust and Dale Weise are the only free agents of consequence next season.

Assets the Leafs would want:

Former No.3 OA pick Alex Galchenyuk.

Top goalie prospect and Team Canada hero Zach Fucale.

Gritty playmaking forward Jacob de la Rose.

Top prospects; scoring winger Nikita Scherbak, hulking winger Michael McCarron and nasty Dman Jared Tinordi.

Montreal’s 2015 1st Round Pick (26th OA), Montreal’s 1st Round Pick 2016

Proposed Habs Trade:

Why it would work:

It’s the Habs! I mean…. No, it’s the Montreal Canadiens… Argh, because they are on Kessel’s NTC I’ll humour this.

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The Habs were this close to having another deep run in the playoffs, they had the goaltending, they had the lock down defense… mostly. However, they could not score, and it was far to easy to load up on Max Pacioretty and shutdown their offense.

Phil Kessel gives them the best offensive player they’ve had in years and most likely the offensive push to go from playoff contender to legitimate cup contender. Leafs get a similar player to Kadri in Galchenyuk, except with higher upside. One of the main holes in the Leafs prospect pool in is net, Antoine Bibeau has risen out of the depths to possibly be something, but he hasn’t proven anything, yet, meanwhile Zach Fucale is the real deal.

The late place of Montreal’s 1st means the Leafs’ need further incentive so they get the Habs 2016 1st as well. Habs have to dump a little salary to absorb Kessel’s 8M so give the Leafs Parenteau’s 1Yr 4Mper and Emelin’s 3Yr 4.1Mper contracts. The Leafs can in turn flip both at the deadline for further assets.

Why it wouldn’t work:

Again, it’s the Habs… if somehow the teams can get over themselves and the wrath of both fan bases, hen maybe, but it is unlikely. The Habs don’t really have the value to pull this off if what Toronto expects to get for Kessel is as high as rumoured. Alex Galchenyuk is basically a less defensively responsible Nazem Kadri, who is going through the same consistency issues Kadri has.

It really depends on whether the Leafs are more interested in quantity or quality for Kessel. Two late 1sts, a top9 forward who hasn’t found his fit yet and a top-tier goalie prospect isn’t the best they can do, but it is the largest quantity in an offer.

Next: Brooklyn Bound?

John Tavares and Phil Kessel playing side by side may finally happen… in New York.

Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

NY Islanders’ Level Of Interest In Kessel: 3/5 Interested But Not Desperate

Cap/Roster Situation:

Over 16M in cap room means the Islanders don’t have to shed any salary in a trade, but do have an internal cap. They do have to resign Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, and have Kyle Okposo, Frans Neilsen and Ryan Strome as the big guys needing contract extensions next season.

Assets the Leafs would want:

Who wouldn’t the Leafs want? The Islanders have an embarrassment of riches in the prospect and young player department. Specifically Ryan Strome, Griffin Reinhart, Ryan Pulock, Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, Michael Dal Colle, Ilya Sorokin, Joshua Ho-Sang and Casey Cizikas.

Proposed Islanders Trade:

Why it would work:

Islanders had the depth to tango with big boys, but outside of John Tavares, lack truly game breaking talent. Islanders are moving to Brooklyn and want to make a big splash to take some of the attention away from the resident New York Rangers, they of the recent Cup Final trip – albeit a loss.

Kessel instantly becomes a ticket selling star in Brooklyn, something that they really need to have success. Leafs get a massive head start to their rebuild with future No.1 center Ryan Strome, top 6 power winger Angers Lee, a 2016 1st that will most likely be a later pick and another potential top pairing Dman in Reinhart. Adding in the rarely used, “salary dump” of Michael Grabner and the Leafs get a big head start on their rebuild.

Why it wouldn’t work:

Islanders don’t want to add all of Strome, Lee, Reinhart/Pulock and a 2016 1st for just Kessel. The Leafs decide that they need a top 2015 pick to trade Kessel. There really aren’t many reasons this deal can’t happen except for differences in player evaluation.

Next: Kessel; Prey or Predator?

Phil Kessel to the Nashville Predators just makes so much sense. Can he help get the Predators to the next level? Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Nashville Preadtors’ Level Of Interest In Kessel: 5/5 Desperate

Cap/Roster Situation:

With 12M to get to the salary floor, the Predators are not hurting for cap space, but they are a low internal budget team and have to add some other pieces still. Priorty No.1 is resigning Mike Ribeiro, the teams surprise No.1 center this season. Add Mike Fisher, Colin Wilson, Craig Smith and Calle Jarnkrok to the list of players needing new contracts. Even after resigning all or some of those players the Predators will still barely be above the salary floor, giving them lots of room to take on Phil Kessel and his 8M contract.

Assets the Leafs would want:

Defense, defense and more defense. Seriously though, Roman Josi, Seth Jones, Ryan Ellis, Mathias Ekholm, then throw in forward Kevin Fiala and goalie Juuse Saros.

Proposed Predators Trade:

Why it would work:

I know, I know, I know, it’ Seth Jones. Seth freaking Jones, and I just said Nashville would trade him to the Leafs. Here me out first before you get all riot-y on me. The Predators surprised almost everyone this past season when they roared out of the gates and fought with Chicago and St.Louis for the division title all season.

Despite the addition of James Neal, the rebirth of Mike Ribeiro and the emergence of Filip Forsberg, Nashville still lacked scoring punch and doesn’t have much in the way of secondary scoring in the event that Forsberg regresses, Ribeiro can’t repeat or Neal gets injured. Meanwhile the Leafs get a true No.1 Dman in the making, the kind of dominant right-handed, minute eating beast they’ve never had.

Seth Jones is a beast and is only going to get better, giving the Leafs an insane amount of prospect depth on the blue line. Juuse Saros is a typical Nashville gem of a goaltender, while not possessing of typical NHL goaltender height, he has uncanny technical and athletic abilities and a penchant for making the 2nd and 3rd save with regularity. Stalberg is a salary dump and unsuccessful experiment in Nashville but can return to a 2nd/3rd line defensive PK role and occasionally chip in offense using his speed.

Don’t need a 1st thrown in here because Jones is such a high end return. Predators can afford to move Seth Jones because they have Shea Weber, Roman Josi, Mathias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis and Victor Bartley and can afford to bring in a more veteran No.6 in free agency.

Why it wouldn’t work:

It’s Seth Jones. That is really the beginning and end of the debate. You might be able to sub Ekholm and Fiala in for Jones, but if I’m Toronto I look to other teams at that point. Stalberg might not be enough contract coming back for Kessel, if not they could always add Paul Gaustad and his 3.25M cap hit. To be completely honest I just need Seth Jones to make this work, I’d even go 1 for 1.

Next: Full Circle To Bean Town

Does Phil Kessel’s hockey career come full circle back to the Bruins?

Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Boston Bruins’ Level Of Interest In Kessel: 3/5 Interested

Cap/Roster Situation:

The Bruins have roughly 7.2M in cap space… and are screwed. Why you ask? Because that 7.2M has to resign Dougie Hamilton – who some are speculating could be offer sheeted as high as 8M per on a long-term deal. Also have to replace the entire 4th line, re-ign trade deadline acquisition Brett Connolly, fund a backup goalie for Rask (hello Malcolm Subban) and resign or replace depth Dmen Adam McQuaid and Matt Bartkowski.

The Bruins also need to find a way to inject more offense into their froward ranks as they ran out of guns quickly and often during the season, contributing as a large reason they didn’t make the playoffs. They will receive some relief from putting Marc Savard and his roughly 4M on LTIR, but not enough to resign everyone and make improvements.

Assets the Leafs would want:

Dougie Hamilton, Joe Morrow, David Pastrnak, Reilly Smith, Brett Connolly, Malcolm Subban, 1st 2015

Proposed Bruins Trade:

Why it would work:

Besides the poetic justice of one of the original pieces of the Phil Kessel trade returning to the Leafs in a 2nd Phil Kessel trade, this deal actually makes some sense. The Bruins have been hurting for scoring punch on the RW pretty much since the moment they traded Kessel but were able to mask that weakness by having unbelievable depth.

The depth that they’ve since lost due to big money extensions to Bergeron, Marchand, Lucic and Krejci kicking in. There are lots of rumours of teams looking to screw the Bruins and their delicate cap situation up by offering Hamilton a serious offer sheet of more than 7M. The Bruins dump Kelly and his 3M cap hit, if they wanted the Leafs would also take Marc Savard and his destined for the LTIR 4M cap hit to sweeten the pot.

This gives the Bruins a truly scary top6 scoring punch on the right side with Kessel, Pastrnak and Smith and giving them the option to package Eriksson off for help elsewhere. Dougie Hamilton will eat up most of if not all the Bruins remaining cap space, so subtracting him and Chris Kelly gives the Bruins ample room to take on Kessel and get some of their vaunted depth back. The Leafs get the top pairing blue liner to partner in with Morgan Rielly at s well as the Bruins 14th OA pick, allowing them to grab another high-end prospect for their pipeline.

Why it wouldn’t work:

All these trade rumours of teams trading for the sake of cap space can be misleading in terms of what that equates to in value. Yes, the Bruins need offensive help, that much is very clear, but would they create a hole on their blue line to solve that problem? It all depends on if the Bruins think they can get the defensive holes filled through either free agency or through a Loui Eriksson/Milan Lucic trade.

Might have to add an inexpensive defender from the Leafs and take back Savard to truly make this deal work, someone like Stuart Percy. If the Bruins feel they can replace Hamilton, and they get the cap space to actually add some depth then maybe they bring Kessel home, maybe.

Next: Recap

Phil Kessel is exactly the kind of player the Leafs’ will need in a few years time, but they don’t need him right now.

Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Recap

Who knows if Phil Kessel will be traded by tomorrow night or even this weekend. The good news for the Leafs is, there isn’t a rush to do so. Phil is and will continue to be an elite level goal scorer, and in a league where goal scoring is going down and is becoming a premium, he will continue to have value. If the Leafs find an offer that they think has enough value, then he will be moved (my money is on Islanders, Predators or a team in Pennsylvania). If they do not find the market will cough up enough for him, then they don’t have to move him.

The trade will most likely boil down to;

1st Round Pick

Young NHL Roster Player

Top Young Prospect

And the Leafs taking back a “bad” contract or two, but will not involve them retaining salary.

Of Kessel’s NTC approved list – which very well may be updated before Wednesday – I can almost guarantee that LA, Chicago, NY Rangers will not happen, while a trade with Boston, Minnesota and Pittsburgh probably won’t happen. Montreal and Philadelphia are probably the only teams on his list where a plausible deal could happen.

That being said, it has long been speculated that if approached, Kessel would waive his NTC and accept a trade to anywhere the team wanted to send him within reason. Based on the cap situations for all of those teams, it is still far more likely that the Leafs deal him outside of his NTC approved list.

Let’s revisit our proposed trade scenarios…

Of those trades the best return for the Leafs is definitely from the Flyers or Bruins, but the most realistic is the Predators or Canadiens packages. Phil Kessel is Toronto’s most valuable and most talented player, he could also be the biggest key to their rebuild. To check out where the rest of the EditorInLeaf team sees Kessel going click here.

So we’ve complete our anatomical breakdown of a Phil Kessel trade. Who do you think makes the most sense as a trading partner? Which – if any – of the proposed deals are the best for the Leafs? Will the Leafs end up having to keep some of his salary? Let me know in the comments below! You can also give me a shout on Twitter @TorrinBatchelor

Next: More Phil Kessel Mock Trades

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