Maple Leafs Joffrey Lupul: Anatomy Of A Trade

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Joffrey Lupul is cursed by the Hockey Gods when it comes to injury, but he can still shoot the puck and create offence at an elite level. Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve started a new weekly feature here at EditorInLeaf.com ; breaking down the anatomy of a trade involving a different piece of the Leafs core every week. We’ll look at rumoured trades and teams that insiders say are interested, as well as one or two that haven’t been mentioned but make sense from a prospect/salary cap/team need perspective. We’ll break down what the Leafs would need for each player and then break down possible trades with each of the rumoured teams.

Where has Joffrey Lupul been the last 28 games? For once, he hasn’t been out with one of his freak “how is this even possible” injuries; he hasn’t been out with a blood infection, or broken hand from a teammates slap-shot, or any of the other injuries resulting from the curse that has obviously been placed upon his body by the Hockey Gods. He has been in the lineup and in a top 9 role for most of the Leafs 2015 calendar year. Since the calendar flipped to 2015, Lupul has managed to post; 1 Goal and 3 Assists good for 4 Points in 28 games played.

Those would be passable numbers for a 4th line player, or even a really defensively sound 3rd line one, but Lupul isn’t either of those. Lupul isn’t on this team to be a bottom 6 forward, he is here to score and be an emotional leader in the dressing room – which, based on the Leafs 2015 record, is another area he has been miserably failing in. Now, even despite the last terrible 28 games, Lupul for the 2014/15 season has still produced at a 1st line rate of goals/60minutes and points/60minutes, so he does still carry value around the league.

Joffrey Lupul is Toronto’s resident pretty boy. He’s fashionable (according to Elle Magazine, Maclean’s and in the know Fashionistas), he is personable and friendly towards the media – which is why despite being on a miserable 28 game stretch of play he has barely been criticized in the media as opposed to Kessel and Phaneuf who have both been ripped apart piece by piece. He is a likeable guy that you always want to cheer for and give the benefit of the doubt too … except when you are paying that guy 5.25M per year for another three seasons after this one ends.

Just to do some math for you, the Leafs are paying Lupul around 250K per point and around 525K per goal. Clearly, this is not the Lupul of two years ago with 67 points in 66 games played. The firecracker with the quick smile who helped kept the dressing room loose and the media off of Kessel and Phaneuf’s collective backs. This is no longer the clutch goal scorer, and potent passer who made fans by the thousands fall in love with him and get his name on the back of their jerseys. This version of Joffrey Lupul needs to go.

Let us assume that Lupul wants out and that the Leafs want to move him this summer, possibly as early as the NHL entry draft. What would the Leafs need back for such an obviously talented but inconsistent, injury cursed, declining forward? What teams would be interested? Which of those teams actually have the right fit, in terms of cap space, prospects/picks/young roster players and need for a veteran scoring winger?

Let’s take a look.

Next: What Is Lupul Worth?

Matt Moulson’s trade to the Wild at last season’s deadline serves as a great comparison for possible value in a return for Joffrey Lupul. Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

What Is A Veteran Scoring Winger Worth?

This is a wide open question with a million and one different answers depending on how you view and value the intangibles and risks that come with Joffrey Lupul. With his history in Toronto for being able to put up good numbers when paired with good players, his dressing room and media presence and work around the community Lupul has some serious value.

When you add in his massive injury history, decking numbers this year and big time contract with term left … he loses some of his shine fast. For some help on getting a scope for a return, let’s look at some recent returns for veteran scoring wingers with an emphasis on players that had large contracts, declining output or injury histories at the time of the trade. To help narrow it down a little more, I won’t be including any deals where there are multiple pieces going both ways, Lupul may fetch a lot of things, but being apart of a blockbuster is very unlikely.

– Both Moulson and Lupul only had a few years of “star” status and both are considered capable players when paired with other star offensive players. Moulson being a free agent here really draws the comparables in this trade to an end however, as Lupul’s contract and injury history don’t get factored in.

– Gaborik had a miserable run in Columbus and the Kings deadline pickup of him drew little praise, but we all know how that turned out for the Kings. Gaborik has a similar injury history to Lupul, with the same kind of “few good years”. When healthy, Gaborik can be a MUCH better offensive player than Lupul, but Lupul has a better two-way game and is rumoured to be a better dressing room guy. So intangibles vs raw talent is debatable for value comparison here. Gaborik being a free agent again reduces the comparable for a return as LA didn’t have to worry about his contract if the deal hadn’t worked out.

– Same free agent story, same injury history with a penchant for being able to elevate play when paired with the right line mates. Perron is a much grittier version of Lupul which has contributed to his injury history, but both have very similar offensive capabilities with Perron being slightly more of a shooter to Lupul’s playmaker. If a team thinks Lupul is a 60+ point guy that can be a positive energy guy in the dressing room, then maybe we see a team offer up a 1st round pick…. but we won’t.

– At the time of the trade Heatley was a significantly better offensive player than Lupul, with no major injury history. However, he forced the Sens to trade him to a team of his choice using his NTC (something Lupul also has) and massively cut any kind of value the Sens could’ve gotten from a bidding war for his services. There most likely won’t be a similar issue with Lupul, but several insiders reported that he vetoed a trade to the Canadiens at the deadline.

– Versteeg is not to the same offensive calibre that Lupul is, but he is a better defensive player. Versteeg also has for the most part, been an extremely durable player so the comparison isn’t great. However, we get a giant contract for a veteran player (that had been a disappointment with Florida) traded for two young mid-tier prospects that were borderline NHL ready. No picks involved, no bad contract in return, but the Panthers retained 50% (2.2M) of Versteeg’s cap hit, a very likely scenario in any Lupul trade.

– In a trade that will haunt Flyers fans forever, fan favourite Scott Hartnell and his massive contract were dealt for an equally massive contract, but significantly worse player in RJ Umberger and a 4th round pick. As Hartnell had slowed down and was prone to injury, the teams locker room needed a shakeup, so they took a “more versatile” but less offensively inclined player in Umberger with slightly less cap hit and one less year. Two teams with bad contracts looking for a locker room change.

In the first 3 trades we see similar players to Lupul get moved for prospects and picks, but all 3 were UFA’s at the time of their respective trades. In the second grouping of trades we see some more comparable situations. Most involve the team taking back an equally bad contract, or retaining salary in order to get something of value in return, this is most likely going to be the case with any Lupul trade. In terms of a viable return, the Dany Heatley scenario is probably the closest.

Next: Who Wants Lupul?

Could the Bruins be the team that takes a chance on Joffrey Lupul? Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Who Wants Lupul?

Hypothetically, based on the earlier trades on the last slide, let’s say that the Leafs want one of the following packages in return for Lupul;

1) Roster player and two early round picks

2) Roster player and late 1st round pick

3) Equally bad contract swap and late round pick

4) Retain salary/Bad contract and get combo of early picks and mid-tier prospects

“… Pittsburgh is in on this. It’s not easy for the Penguins, they are right at the cap, but they have some young pieces that would definitely interest Toronto, particularly on defense … Montreal, I wonder if they are back into it… [One team that would] need to clear some cap room to get it done is Boston. He fits what [those teams] need which is a winger who can play on their top two lines.” – Elliotte Friedman, Sportsnet 960

Insiders have had Lupul linked to a variety of teams throughout the season and will continue to do so until the moment he is inevitably traded. He’s been linked to Pittsburgh (before the Perron deal), Montreal (apparently he vetoed a deal at the deadline), Boston (if the Leafs are serious about a long term rebuild, inner division trades don’t matter) and St.Louis (they made a pass at him at the deadline but the teams couldn’t come to an agreement).

To keep this feature manageable, we’ll cut out the Bruins as they have youngsters David Pastrnak, Reilly Smith traded for Brett Connolly at the deadline to shore up the team’s scoring winger issues. Then we’ll add the Florida and Columbus to the conversation as it is blatantly obvious that they both need a scoring boost, but probably don’t want to pay the cost to land a Kessel type of player. Finally, Dallas joins the list of suitors as they have a need for savvy veterans on the wings.

Next: Pittsburgh's Trade Offer

Can Joffrey Lupul be the missing piece of the Penguins next Cup run?Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Pittsburgh Penguins’ Trade Offer

Why it will work:

The Pens are overflowing with D-prospects and can afford to lose the smart, calm and capable Harrington. The Pens very well might not even make the playoffs and that will call for sweeping changes. Sweeping changes require cap space and Rob Scuderi is a borderline useless pylon that takes up 3.375M of said cap space.

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Lupul joins Perron, Dupuis and Hornqvist to give the Pens the best group of top 6 wingers Crosby and Malkin have EVER had. All can play 200ft, all can make plays, go to the corners and put the puck in the net when one of the superstars finds them open. They get a plug-in Scuderi out of the lineup, and only take on 700K more to add a quality top 6 winger in Lupul who has proven he can play with great players and elevate his game and has some playoff pedigree.

Toronto gets a highly intelligent defensive Dman in Harrington who could partner in perfectly with Gardiner or Rielly or Percy to provide a safety net for the Leafs puck rushing young Dmen. Scuderi has two more years, and even though he is a borderline NHL defenceman at this point in his career, he’s still been a cup winner and played in a lot of playoff games which the Leafs could use around all their young players.

Why it won’t work:

For a team that has struggled massively with consistency, adding a player that has only scored 4 points in 28 games down the stretch isn’t a recipe for success. The Pens and Rutherford like old school hockey and players like Scuderi and Spalling and attach unwarranted value to them.

In a scenario where the Pens miss the playoffs and decide to make a massive roster turnover in which they move Fleury, Malkin and/or Letang; adding Lupul doesn’t make sense anymore. The Pens decide that they don’t like Lupul’s injury history and contract even with the Leafs retaining some salary.

Next: The Joffrey Blues'

Does Joffrey Lupul on the Blues finally take the team over the hump? Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

St.Louis Blues’ Trade Offer

Why it will work:

The Blues have struggled to score all year, despite having emerging superstar Tarasenko and young scoring winger Jaden Scwartz on the roster and Joffrey Lupul can help with that. Berglund carries a 3.7M cap hit for 2 more seasons and has some small injury concerns of his own and has been the main trade chip the Blues have floated out for the last two seasons.

Berglund isn’t an offensively inclined player as he’s only topped 40pts twice in his career, and is at only 26 for the season. Berglund is however a great defensive player, some of his limited offensive numbers are due to being deployed as mostly a 3rd line shutdown forward; despite this, he has posted two 20 goal seasons and 19 goals back in 2011-2012. Blues get offensive, and savvy playmaking to help get their scorers to the next level and Toronto gets a defensively sound, hard-working forward to help mentor the kids or flip at the deadline for more rebuild pieces.

Why it won’t work:

The Blues offence decides to come to life in the playoffs and they win the cup, and decide to keep the core together as much as possible. The Leafs want more for having to retain salary in this deal. The Blues might not want to include a pick as well as Berglund if they view Lupul’s injury history as too much of a risk. Lupul refuses to waive his limited NTC to go to St.Louis.

Next: Florida Panthers Trade Offer

Does Brad Boyes finally get to play a game for the team that drafted him all those years ago? Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Florida Panthers Trade Offer

Why it will work:

The Panthers surprised a lot of people this season when they almost fought their way into a playoff spot. Standout rookie and top pick Aaron Ekblad contributed a lot to this, as did a full season from Luongo. One thing they couldn’t seem to do was score, to help with this they went out and got Jaromir Jagr.

While Jagr helped the young Panthers a lot, and will most likely be back next season, they need more scoring options. The one thing that Lupul’s injury affords him is the experience of how to handle coming back from an injury. This is something that Jonathan Huberdeau and the other youngsters can benefit from, while also learning from the gym rat that Joffrey Lupul is.

Lupul, when given the puck in the right areas is still easily capable of posting 30 goals. That skill set in a league where goal scoring is becoming harder and harder to do is incredibly valuable, add in the veteran experience and work-out-beast that Lupul is and you get a player the Panthers would be wise to insulate their young players with.

Toronto gets the extremely talented but pint-sized (5 foot 6, 165 lbs) Grimaldi and the mean and nasty physical specimen that is D-prospect Alex Petrovic. Both players are borderline NHL ready and start the process of rebuilding Toronto’s system. Brad Boyes is still a nice offensive piece and the Leafs can flip him at the deadline for more pieces to continue the rebuild.

Why it won’t work:

Panthers don’t want to add a small piece and go after a big offensive fish like Kessel or Marleau. The Leafs insist on a young roster player like Huberdeau or Gudbranson or do not want to keep salary. Realistically, this is a trade that benefits both teams and fills needs for two teams going in very different directions. If the Panthers value Lupul’s intangibles and offensive talent more than they are afraid of his injury history, this is a deal that gets done.

Next: Lupul A Hab?

Max Pacioretty needs offensive support from the Habs, Joffrey Lupul can help provide that support. Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

Montreal Canadiens’ Trade Offer

Why it will work:

The Habs have relied too heavily on Carey Price and his all-world goaltending to keep them in 1-0 and 2-1 games this season. They have struggled to score from top to bottom, besides Pacioretty, Plekanecs and Gallagher and could benefit from a healthy Joffrey Lupul playing alongside Alex Galchenyuk or David Desharnais.

Why it won’t work:

Rumours flew around the deadline about how the Leafs and Habs had almost completed a Bozak+Lupul to the Habs for a high pick, two good prospects, Lars Eller and Alexei Emelin, but that Lupul vetoed the deal using his limited NTC. If he didn’t want to move to a hated rival then, he probably doesn’t want too now. If the Habs decide that Lupul’s value is significantly lower due to his play down the stretch they may lose interest in him. The same injury concerns every other team is going to have.

Next: Dancing With The Dallas Stars

Does Seguin do for Lupul what Kessel once did for Lupul? Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Dallas Stars’ Trade Offer

Why it will work:

The Stars have two elite stars in Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin, elite young talent along the likes of John Klingberg and Valerie Nichuskin and one of the best third lines in hockey led by Cody Eakin. The Stars do not however have a lot of depth, or defensive help and of their two big offseason additions Jason Spezza and Ales Hemsky, only Spezza has really worked out.

Lupul has proven he can play with great players, so he could pair in with Benn and Seguin and add to one of the leagues deadliest lines, or he could support Jason Spezza and attempt to boost the Stars depth. Either way, Lupul is a much better option than Hemsky in terms of consistency and offensive upside, and although Lupul is cursed with freak injuries, he is not as “injury prone” as Hemsky is.

Why it won’t work:

Stars decide Hemsky = Lupul and there is no point is paying for an asset you already have. Stars focus more a defensive and goaltending help and stick with their current forward core. Stars want to give the Spezza+Hemsky project another year, and with a healthy Nichuskin this time. This is a deal that may evolve to include more pieces from both sides as the Leafs core has several players (Lupul, Kessel, Polak, Phaneuf, Bernier and Reimer) that may be of interest for the Stars.

Next: Recap

Can the injury cursed Joffrey Lupul bring in the kind of return that the Leafs want? Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

Recapping The Anatomy Of A Joffrey Lupul Trade

Here are all the trades we just proposed;

All of these trades involve the Leafs retaining salary, because no matter your opinion of Lupul’s talent level, his cap hit and play this year combined with his injury curse does not equal 5.25M per season for three more seasons.

In a best case scenario, the Leafs find a team *Cough-Florida-Cough* to believe in Lupul finding the cure for his injury curse and returning to his 25+ goal 60+ point form and being a key veteran cog in their playoff bound team. Realistically, the Leafs will have to retain at least some of Lupul’s salary (Somewhere between 750K and 2.25M) and most likely a bad contract in return. After that unpleasantness, the Leafs will get some nice pieces for Lupul, whether that is in the form of picks or prospects.

So we’ve completed our anatomical breakdown of a Lupul trade. Who do you think makes the most sense as a trading partner? Which deal is the best value for the Leafs? Which is the absolute worst and “I must be crazy for even proposing it” trade? Let me know in the comment section below, you can also reach me on Twitter @TorrinBatchelor to keep the debate going!

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