Jonathan Bernier is the latest source of controversy in Leafs Nation… but he won’t be the last.
Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports
Today, we’re starting a new weekly feature here at EditorInLeaf.com ; breaking down the anatomy of a trade involving a different piece of the Leafs core every week. We’ll look at rumoured trades and teams that insiders say are interested, as well as one or two that haven’t been mentioned but make sense from a prospect/salary cap/team need perspective. We’ll break down what the Leafs would need for each player and then break down possible trades with each of the rumoured teams.
There has been a lot of talk recently about Jonathan Bernier and his place going forward inside the Toronto rebuild. Where once (at the beginning of the season) he was thought to be a sure No.1 goaltender and one of the Leafs few untouchable pieces to build a new core around … now it seems as if Leafs management have soured on him and both parties may want out.
“We were probably a junior team against an NHL team tonight, I don’t know how many times were gonna talk about having a good start and just not do it”
With Bernier coming out with this scathing gem about the teams play two weeks ago and facing the prospect of most of the teams “best” players being moved out-of-town and potentially playing behind an even worse team next season, getting out of Toronto has to be on his mind.
On this week’s roundtable we talked about whether it was worth keeping Bernier on for the rebuild, you can read that piece here.
Jonathan Bernier is unquestionably a talented goaltender, currently sitting 12th in 5v5 Sv% with 92.99% despite playing for the defensively porous Leafs. However, despite these elite numbers, Bernier has developed a habit of letting in a “weak” goal early on in games.
Like many younger goaltenders still finding their footholds in the league, Bernier also struggles with consistency and this has kept him from putting the critics to rest and truly assuming the mantle of being an elite number one goaltender in the NHL.
Let us assume that Bernier wants out and that the Leafs want to move him this summer, possibly as early as the NHL entry draft. What would the Leafs need back for such an obviously talented but inconsistent goaltender? What teams would be interested?
Which of those teams actually have the right fit, in terms of cap space, prospects/picks/young roster players and need at the goaltender position?
Let’s take a look.
Next: What Is Bernier Worth?
Jonathan Bernier could be a major part of Toronto’s rebuild, or he could be another victim of it.
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What Is A Goalie Worth?
This is probably the most opinion based part of any Bernier trade speculation, as goalies, despite being key to any competitive team, often have very little trade value.
Lets look at some recent goalie trades and try to establish what the “market value” would be for a borderline elite number one goalie with consistency issues.
The first three trades were all for borderline number one NHL goaltenders who were either unproven (Bishop) or had consistency issues (Dubnyk), and as such all three got almost identical returns: 3rd round picks. Now Jonathan Bernier is a much better goaltender than all three of these players were at the time that they were traded (Dubynk is obviously on fire now and Bishop is a borderline top 5 goalie).
As such we are realistically looking at a return similar to one of the last three trades. Bernier is at a very similar point in his career as Cory Schneider was when he was moved to New Jersey, so a high 1st round pick is definitely possible. Bernier doesn’t have the albatross contract that Luongo did in his move to Florida, as he is an RFA and the team trading for him would have complete control over the negotiations.
However, Bernier is currently plagued by the consistency issues that spelled the end of Luongo’s tenure in Vancouver. Getting a younger blue chip goaltending prospect and a young roster player in return for Bernier is a good start, but due to the lack on albatross contract and younger age, Bernier would command more than solid 3rd line workhorse Shawn Matthias.
The most interesting comparable trade is definitely Luongo’s move to Vancouver, as both goalies were around similar ages and viewed in similar light around the league for being a young potentially elite number one goaltender in the NHL. Obviously, the trade didn’t work out for Florida, but the “idea” of what they were getting in return is everything the Leafs could hope for.
Hypothetically, based on these earlier trades, let’s say the Leafs want one of the following scenarios in return for Bernier in a trade:
1) A top 10 pick in the 2015 draft
2) A late 1st round pick in the 2015 draft and a top prospect
3) A young goalie, young roster player and early pick
The Hockey News’ Rory Boylen has a really good take on goaltender’s trade value, or lack thereof due to the constant turnover of the position and stream of young backups turned sensations overnight (See: Hammond, Andrew in Ottawa for most recent example).
The Oilers are one of a number of teams that would be interested in Bernier’s services
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Who Wants Jonathan Bernier?
Let’s take a look at the possible return scenarios we speculated about, based on past goalie trades and list the teams that fit the criteria.
1) A top 10 pick in the 2015 draft
Buffalo, Arizona are out as Bernier isn’t worth McDavid or Eichel on his own.
New Jersey, Columbus and Colorado all have established young No.1 goaltenders.
That leaves us with Edmonton, Carolina, Philadelphia and San Jose as potential suitors.
2) A late 1st round pick in the 2015 draft and a top prospect
Teams with known or potential goaltending issues qualify here:
Anaheim, Detroit, Dallas, Winnipeg, San Jose, Philadephia, Carolina, Edmonton and Buffalo.
3) A young goalie, young roster player and early pick
We’ll judge this category by the young goaltender piece as there are only a handful around the league.
Montreal (Zach Fucale), Boston (Malcolm Subban), Tampa Bay (Andrei Vasilevski), Washington (Phillip Grubauer) – Teams that already have elite No.1 goaltenders and do not need Bernier.
Arizona – Mark Visentin – The Coyotes are in their own rebuild and aren’t looking to move young assets.
Detroit – Petr Mrazek – With Howard’s game faltering and Mrazek, not quite ready to be the No.1 guy, could Bernier be the answer?
Winnipeg – Michael Hutchinson/Eric Comrie – With Pavelec always a question mark and Hutchinson struggling down the stretch, the Jets are suddenly a serious option.
Anaheim – John Gibson or Frederik Andersen – Although the top team in the NHL, neither goaltender is proven and the team’s cup window is now.
Dallas – Jack Campbell – Lehtonen is injury prone and has had a brutal year, do the Stars look to start fresh with Bernier?
I’ll cut the team that doesn’t fit multiple criteria so goodbye to Buffalo.
Live Feed class=inline-text id=inline-text-20Detroit Red Wings: Former netminder Jonathan Bernier retires /
We’re also going to cut Philadelphia because of how well Steve Mason has played in spite of the team in front of him. Winnipeg might not like the uncertainty, but they are only fighting for a playoff spot because of Hutchinson, so they won’t give up on him so quickly. Detroit is the last cut as they are married to Howard for the short-term and have a history for hanging onto their goalies even when they shouldn’t.
That leaves us with the Anaheim Ducks, Carolina Hurricanes, Edmonton Oilers, Dallas Stars and San Jose Sharks as the best potential trade partners.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman linked Bernier to Edmonton and San Jose in a recent 30 Thoughts column, as well as tying Toronto to John Gibson out of Anaheim.
Sportsnet’s Damien Cox linked the San Jose Sharks and Dallas Stars to Bernier just before the deadline:
So now you know there is some logic and fact based here, not just me spouting off nonsense.
Next: Duck Hunting - Anaheim Trade Scenario
Could John Gibson be the key piece of a Bernier trade?
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Anaheim Ducks Trade Proposal:
We’ll set the basic ground rules at the trades have to be for just Bernier and fit inside both teams salary cap structure.
Why it works:
The Ducks, although one of the youngest teams in the league, have core players like Perry, Getzlaf, Beauchemin, Kesler and Cogliano that are quickly approaching the end of their prime and the team’s window to compete for a cup is now. The team has two top goalies, but both are unproven, Andersen has proven to be a bit injury prone and Gibson comes with the wild inconsistency of such a young goaltender. Bernier, although not much more “proven” than either goalie has posted better numbers on a terrible Leafs team the last two years. As an added bonus, being the backup in LA for several years, Bernier has faced all of the Ducks nemesis shooters in practice hundreds of times. Anaheim went out and got Kesler specifically to compete with LA, Bernier could be another tool in their arsenal to do just that.
Why it doesn’t work:
John Gibson has another year of his ELC before hitting RFA status, and despite the Leafs taking on Mark Fistric’s 1.2M salary cap hit, the value probably isn’t quite there. That constant battle of “potential” versus “results” and where Anaheim GM Bob Murray stands, could sway this deal one way or the other.
Next: Down The Well Again - Oilers Trade Offer
Does Ben Scrivens find himself a Toronto Maple Leaf again?
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Edmonton Oilers Trade Proposal:
I’m breaking one of the only rules I made on this trade by adding in the Nashville pick… but hey, why not.
Why it will work:
Edmonton screwed up big time by going on a spending frenzy and signing D-list free agents to B-list big money contracts in Pouliot, Nikitin, Ference and almost Clarkson. Getting that 7.75M off of the books for the next 2 seasons is big in a cap world, and probably worth trading down in the 1st round IF they get bumped out of the top 3 and DON’T win the lottery.
Nikitin is a fringe NHL defender, and the Leafs might just buy him out, but Ference along with Robidas and Polak form a very solid veteran core to guide the young Leafs through the rebuild. The Oilers also get to give the Captaincy to Taylor Hall the way it always should’ve been. Meanwhile the Leafs get another top 5 pick in a deep draft and reunite the tandem of Scrivens and Reimer that got them to the playoffs that one time… it worked out so well then right?
Why it won’t work:
7.75M in free cap space would be amazing, except if you are the Oilers and no free agents will take your money unless you massively overpay them. Considering the Oilers’ complete lack of drafting skills outside of the 1st round, they would be loath to move from top 5 to 24-30th even if they do finally solve their constantly revolving goaltending door with the best goaltender the organization has had since Fuhr.
A deal of Scrivens, the Penguins 1st rounder this year and a prospect like Dillon Simpson or Nail Yakupov for Bernier would be more likely…. but that is less fun to speculate on.
Next: Hurricanes Trade Offer
Cam Ward and his massive contract could be the price of a second top 5 pick for Toronto
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Carolina Hurricanes Trade Proposal:
*Carolina retains 3M of Semin’s 7M salary for the next 3 seasons
*Carolina retains 1.8M of Ward’s 6.8M salary for next season
Why it will work:
Carolina is a very low-budget team and having Semin make 7M to score 5 goals and be a healthy scratch for 20+ games is a death sentence for the small market team. Ditto for Cam Ward and his massive 6.8M to be a backup. The ‘Canes were willing to retain 50% of both player’s salaries at the deadline to make them go away.
Toronto is going to do just that for the ‘Canes; giving them a borderline elite goalie that is under Carolina’s control as an RFA in return for the ‘Canes own 1st round pick. This deal also helps Toronto get to the cap floor should they succeed in moving everyone else out the door. With Captain Eric Staal and the ‘Canes most recent terrible big investment Jordan Staal both appearing to be starting to go downhill, the Hurricanes need a goalie that can get the most out of this team and it’s dwindling stars.
Why it won’t work:
The ‘Canes are debating going through a rebuild themselves and the top 5 pick goes a long way to jump starting that. Having 4.8M of dead cap space may not be palatable to the ‘Canes owner, however they basically have 7M in dead space because of Semin as is. This is a very plausible deal.
Next: Star Struck - Dallas's Trade Offer
Jonathan Bernier could be the answer to Head Coach Lindy Ruff’s goaltending nightmare.
Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Dallas Stars’s Trade Proposal:
Why it will work:
Lindy Ruff and Jim Nill are fed up with Kari Lehtonen. The team has the offensive guns to run with any team in the league. The defence is slowly coming along, but Lehtonen has been a sieve in net all season; the team needs confidence in their goalie to take that next step as a team.
Leafs get Campbell who was once considered the next “great” NHL goaltender but after a few rough development years in the AHL, some of the shine has worn off. They also get a really chippy, power forward, goal scoring winger in Brett Ritchie and then the (currently) 11th overall pick to potentially add another blue chip prospect to the system.
Why it won’t work:
The only reason this deal doesn’t work is if the team decides to buckle down with Kari Lehtonen. Otherwise this is a slam dunk for both teams.
Next: Blood In The Water - San Jose's Trade Offer
The Leafs could end up with 3, or even 4 first round picks at the 2015 NHL Entry Draft.
Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
San Jose’s Trade Proposal:
Why it will work:
San Jose doesn’t trust Niemi, for good reasons, Niemi has been one of the main weak links for this team all season. San Jose appears poised to go for a youth movement and has tried to force Jumbo Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau and their large cap hits out of the door for two seasons now. Just like the Ducks, the Sharks know they have to beat the Kings to advance in the playoffs, Bernier’s knowledge of the team and it’s shooters is another boon here.
Why it won’t work:
The Sharks decide to go with a cheaper, stop-gap option in net. The Sharks don’t want to include Nikloai Goldobin or Chris Tierney in the deal. There are a few reasons this deal could fall apart, none of them major, but enough analysts, insiders and experts have linked the Sharks to Bernier for me to believe “where there is smoke there is fire” in this scenario.
Next: Recap
Recap:
Here are all the potential trades in one place.
*Carolina retains 3M of Semin’s salary
*Carolina retains 1.8M of Ward’s 6.8M salary
Next week we’ll continue breaking down the Anatomy Of A (To Be Decided Core Leafs Player) Trade.
So we’ve completed our anatomical breakdown of a Bernier trade. Who do you think makes the most sense as a trading partner? Which deal is the best value for the Leafs? Which is the absolute worst and “I must be crazy for even proposing it” trade? Let me know in the comment section below, you can also reach me on Twitter @TorrinBatchelor to keep the debate going!
