Maple Leafs Game Preview: Florida vs Toronto
Jan 31, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs right wing Phil Kessel (81) against the Philadelphia Flyers during the second period at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
The Toronto Maple Leafs are back in action tonight against the Florida Panthers as the South Florida team looks to push for the post-season.
Yesterday morning a reporter from the Sun-Sentinel dropped a Phil Kessel rumor on everyone and had the Leafs forward trending on Twitter.
Tonight, Kessel and the Leafs take the ice against the rumored team with interest.
Florida comes into town with a 4-4-2 record in their last ten while the Maple Leafs have a 1-7-1 record for their previous ten games.
Both teams are deserving of their place in the standings, with the Panthers surprising everyone this season with where they stand – and the play that’s gotten them there.
Tonight will be the first game without Mike Santorelli and Cody Franson. The loss of Franson, combined with the injury to Phaneuf, puts the Leafs in a tough spot on defence.
Here’s how the new pairings are going to look, via Paul Hendrick:
Rielly and Polak become Leafs top pairing. Gardiner and Holzer are the 2nd group. Granberg/Robidas are Leafs' 3rd pairing. #tmltalk
— Paul Hendrick (@HennyTweets) February 16, 2015
There’s nothing pretty about those pairs. Rielly has been carrying Polak since they became a pair and Gardiner is likely to struggle with Holzer – and that’s your top four D.
Jonathan Bernier is expected to start in goal for Toronto and Joffrey Lupul is expected to remain out of the lineup.
Let’s take a look at the tale of the tape and the analytics report for the game.
Next: Tale of the Tape
Feb 14, 2015; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs goalie Jonathan Bernier (45) makes a save against Montreal Canadiens during an overtime period at Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Jean-Yves Ahern-USA TODAY Sports
Tale of the Tape
Toronto
23-28-5 51 points (14th in Eastern Conference)
PP: 18.6% (14th in NHL)
PK: 83.7% (7th in NHL)
G/GP: 2.75 (16th in NHL)
GA/GP: 3.02 (25th in NHL)
Win % When Scoring First: .708 (14th in NHL)
Florida
24-19-12 60 points (9th Eastern Conference)
PP: 14.9% (27th in NHL)
PK: 79.7% (22nd in NHL)
G/GP: 2.36 (25th in NHL)
GA/GP: 2.64 (16th in NHL)
Win % When Scoring First: .667 (17th in NHL)
The Panthers are four points out of a playoff spot right now and largely due to the stability of Roberto Luongo between the pipes.
They only have one more win than the Toronto Maple Leafs but they’ve gained a losers point from overtime or a shootout twelve times – tied with Los Angeles for the most in the league.
If Jonathan Bernier can put together a performance that mirrors the last two games the Leafs will have a good chance to get a rare victory.
The Panthers offense is underwhelming – but the Leafs will have to beat a pretty good goaltender at the other end of the ice.
The Leafs have a significant advantage on special teams and they’ll have to take advantage of that given their struggles at 5v5 lately.
Next: Analytics Report
Feb 15, 2015; Sunrise, FL, USA; Florida Panthers goalie Roberto Luongo (1) makes a save on a shot by St. Louis Blues left wing Alexander Steen (20) in the shootout at BB&T Center. The Blues won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports
Analytics Report
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The Florida Panthers, dubbed the “Fancy Cats” by the analytics community, are a model for what an underwhelming roster can do when they play a good system of hockey.
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The Panthers play good possession hockey and have gotten results for it – they’re only four points out of a wildcard seed.
Shooting percentage has been the killer for Florida. With the inability to score goals they’ve had to rely on Roberto Luongo to pick up the slack – luckily for them he has been up to the task.
The Leafs continue to struggle in all areas. The shooting percentage is slowly rising again after a disastrous month of January but it’s too little to late for the Maple Leafs.
The greatest possession and puck luck in the world couldn’t save their season at this point. They’d have to go 22-2-1 in their remaining 25 games to even have a chance to make the playoffs.
Going with this years trend for Florida, if the Leafs can beat Luongo regularly the Panthers won’t be able to catch up.