Feb. 7, 2013; Glendale, AZ, USA; Chicago Blackhawks goalie Ray Emery (30) celebrates with defenseman Duncan Keith (2) and defenseman Brent Seabrook (7) after beating the Phoenix Coyotes 6-2 at Jobing.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

I’ve written about Pythagorean Expectation before and if you are wondering what it is all about you can find out more HERE. It was developed by legendary Baseball sabermetrician, Bill James, as a way to evaluate expected wins based on run differential. This can be translated to hockey and expected points by using goal differential. The equation to do this is:

Points % = {(goals scored)^2/[(goals scored)^2 +(goals allowed)^2]} x 2.23

Since the NHL instituted the bonus point for overtime and shootout losses. the average points per game is no longer two. The advent of the three point game has increased that average to 2.23. That is why you see 2.23 in the equation and not two.

Points percentage (Pts%) is used as the basis since not all teams have played the same amount of games. This allows us to compare these teams with an even playing field. We want to look at the difference between the actual points percentage and the predicted points percentage using Pythagorean Expectation.  The standings show that teams like Tampa Bay, Ottawa and Washington are not getting the points expected given their goal differential, while Boston, Chicago, Anaheim and New Jersey seem to be more fortunate.

We must remember that we are only 10-12 games into the season for most teams so this is very early to draw any conclusions using Pythagorean Expectation, but it is interesting to see which teams might be getting a little lucky early in the season. I will continue to post these standings at the quarter points so we can see how things change.

***Standings are up to and including games played on February 9, 2013***

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