Toronto Maple Leafs: Recent Slump By The Numbers

The Toronto Maple Leafs have been struggling since the end of the Christmas Break.

After their incredible start to the 2018-19 season, the Toronto Maple Leafs these days have been the polar opposite of that. Instead of everything going their way, it seems obvious that the Leafs fortunes have changed dramatically.

This has been amplified since William Nylander made his highly anticipated return to the lineup on December 6th, and more so following the Christmas Break. As a result of their struggles over the past few weeks, the rest of the Atlantic Division has caught up to the Leafs and their lead has been significantly reduced.

So what has been the cause of the Leafs recent struggles? Is it because the team as a whole isn’t getting it done or is it due to coaching decisions from Mike Babcock and company? Surely, there has to be a reason for the sudden lack of success.

In today’s post, we will take a look at the Leafs recent slump by the numbers.

A change of fortunes

As recently as January 5th, the Leafs were on pace to post a 112-point campaign, which would have been by far their best regular season in franchise history. Since then, the Leafs have gone 3-5-0, the 6th worst winning percentage in the NHL during that span.

In the Leafs first 28 games, they had a 20-8-0 record, the highest goals-for% (58.12), and the highest PDO rating in the NHL (1.037). From December 6th onward, that has changed to 9-9-2, 54.17%, and 1.015 respectively.

On the surface, that doesn’t sound bad as teams with hot starts are bound to regress back to the mean. However, the last ten games tell a much different story for the Leafs.

From December 29th until Sunday night’s loss to the Arizona Coyotes, the Leafs have a 3-7-0 record, which is a league-worst .300 win %. Going further, the Leafs have a 45.10 GF%, 23 GF, an 8.68 SH%, an 89.82 SV%, and a .985 PDO at even strength during that same stretch. This has them ranked 23rd, 25th, 19th, 21st, and 22nd in the league respectively.

It has been no secret the power play has also been a problem for the Leafs for quite some time. Dating back to December 29th, they have gone 1-18 (5.5%) on the power play, which is last in the league. With such a talented bunch of players on the roster, that simply isn’t good enough.

Some positives, mostly negatives

Most of the Leafs players individually have been struggling as a whole. During this 10 game stretch, Nylander only has 1 goal and 1 assist, Auston Matthews has just 1 goal (None since January 5th), and Nazem Kadri and Patrick Marleau have a combined two goals each.

Meanwhile, Frederik Andersen and Garret Sparks each have a GAA over 3.00, with Michael Hutchinson leads all goalies in wins with 2 (!).

Put it all together, it’s clear the Leafs have been struggling lately. While that may be true, the Leafs haven’t been completely devoid of some things going their way.

There are some underlying stats that the Leafs are effective in which are worth mentioning. Since December 29th, the Leafs have a 53.77 CF%, a 57.82 SCF%, a 55.48 SCSF%, a 61.80 HDCF%, and a  60.90 HDSF%. Across the NHL this has them ranked 6th, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, and 2nd respectively.

This means that despite the Leaf lack of goal production, they are still getting the majority of the scoring chances and have overall been possessing the puck. While they aren’t getting the bounces going their way, it isn’t due to a lack of trying.

Conclusion

No matter how you look at all of these numbers, the fact of the matter is that the Leafs during the past few weeks have simply not been good enough. The high-flying offence has run dry, the power-play remains ice-cold, and the goalies aren’t making enough saves.

Granted, they have been getting their chances and some underlying stats do show the Leafs are playing well. Regardless of how they do against the Washington Capitals on Wednesday, however, Toronto will finish the month of January with a losing record, including a dismal record at Scotiabank Arena.

The Leafs have made changes to their lineup during Monday’s practice so it’s clear Babcock and the coaching staff are looking for ways to get the team back on track. Until the Leafs start to show more passion, effort and drive on a consistent basis, these line shuffling may not be enough.

With the All-Star Break forthcoming, the Leafs will get 9-days rest following their game against the Capitals. We can only hope the team gets things figured out during their time off.

Thanks for reading!

All stats unless otherwise noted are from Hockey-Reference.com and Natural Stat Trick.