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Toronto Maple Leafs: The Playoff Clinching Magic Number

By Andrew Boehmer

Mar 22, 2017; Columbus, OH, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs center Nazem Kadri (43) reacts to scoring a goal against the Columbus Blue Jackets in the third period at Nationwide Arena. The Leafs won 5-2. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 22, 2017; Columbus, OH, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs center Nazem Kadri (43) reacts to scoring a goal against the Columbus Blue Jackets in the third period at Nationwide Arena. The Leafs won 5-2. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Toronto Maple Leafs are nearing a playoff berth for the first time since the 2012-13 season, but just how soon until they clinch?

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a pretty good shot at making the playoffs this season. Their actual odds are 90.5% if you want the exact number. Okay, but what about this whole magic number thing?

We’re going to get to that, I promise. First, I’m going to pose a question that’ll lead us into the magic number. Can we project an accurate point total that the Leafs will need to accumulate in order to clinch a playoff spot by using a mathematical equation?

The answer is yes, we can. It’s not too complicated, but I’m still going to break it down into bite-sized pieces.

Full disclosure, math is not my friend. I’m pretty sure we’ve been over this before.

However, I’ll try my best to get down to the correct answer.

Magic Number Definition

A magic number is a quantifiable figure in sports associated with a team that projects their point total to clinch a spot in the playoffs. So, let’s say I want to figure out when the Leafs will cement their spot in the 2016-17 playoffs.

Good news is I want to and better yet, I’m going to figure it out below.

The Mathematical Equation

It’s quite simple.

For this demonstration, we’ll need to use the team we want to find the magic number for, the Leafs and the next closest team in the Eastern Conference that’s not in a playoff spot, the Boston Bruins.

(G*2)+1-(2*Aw)-Aotl-(2*Bl)-Botl

  • G represents the total number of games in the regular season
  • Aw represents the Leafs overall wins throughout the regular season
  • Aotl represents the Leafs overall overtime losses throughout the regular season
  • Bl represents the Bruins overall losses throughout the regular season
  • Botl represents the Bruins overall overtime losses throughout the regular season

The answer is a representation of points needed to clinch a playoff spot.

The Toronto Maple Leafs Magic Number

Let’s insert the figures.

The Leafs have a record of 35-23-15 (third in the Atlantic Division with 85 points), while the Bruins have a record of 38-30-6 (closest team in the Eastern Conference that’s not in a playoff spot with 82 points).

Please refer to the mathematical equation section above when inserting the numbers.

(82*2)+1-(2*35)-(15)-(2*30)-(6) = 14

Now, you may be wondering what the number 14 represents.

Well, duh, it’s the magic number.

Here’s the more insightful answer. It’s how many more points the Leafs will need in order to clinch a playoff spot. Right now they’ve amassed 85 points and if we add 14 to that, you get a grand total of 99 points.

Possible Total

Ding, ding, ding, and a light comes on.

The Leafs have already played 73 games, meaning there’s just nine remaining to play.

In those nine games, there’s a total of 18 possible points up for grabs.

The highest point total they can reach would be 103, something that hasn’t been done since the 2003-04 season, which also happened to be the last time the team entered the playoffs after a full 82 game regular season. In order to do that, they’ll need to win all nine in any fashion.

In order to do that, they’ll need to win all nine in any fashion.

Other Possible Outcomes

Keep in mind that there are a few different outcomes when talking about their future potential record to clinch a playoff spot before the end of the regular season.

Those records could be an accumulation of anywhere between a minimum of14 (seven games played) and a maximum of 16 (eight games played) out of a possible 16 points from their remaining nine games that would solidify a playoff spot prior to their last game being played.

To take all the guess work out, here are the possible records the Leafs could finish with from seven of their last nine games in the regular season that would amass 14-16 points.

Seven games:

7-0-0 = 14

Eight games:

7-1-0 or 6-0-2 = 14

7-0-1 = 15

8-0-0 = 16

Any of the above outcomes and the Toronto Maple Leafs will clinch before their last game of the regular season.

Although there are a few hypothetical conundrums that could be conjured up in the hopes of sabotaging all my problem-solving efforts.

In the end, they’re just hypothetical.

What I’m saying is that the Toronto Maple Leafs likelihood of clinching a playoff spot before season’s end is improbable, not impossible. The team still has a tough road ahead of them, but three wins in a row and a record of 7-2-1 in their last 10 is quite extraordinary.

Earliest Possible Clinching Game

Well, if the Toronto Maple Leafs have any chance of clinching before the regular season winds down, it’ll come in seven games when they face the Tampa Bay Lightning on 6 April.

They’ll need to keep a perfect record in order to clinch at the conclusion of the contest, though.

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