Toronto Maple Leafs: Kevin Shattenkirk Off-Season Thoughts

It’s no secret that the Toronto Maple Leafs need immediate defensive relief and a possible solution could be pending free agent Kevin Shattenkirk.

A lot of people assumed that Kevin Shattenkirk would be a big target for the Toronto Maple Leafs by this year’s NHL Trade Deadline Day. In the end, he was traded to the Washington Capitals.

However, it wouldn’t have been a good idea to trade for Shattenkirk because the Leafs would’ve had to give up a lot to get him. Not to mention the possibility that the All-Star defenseman could end up being just a rental player.

It was too risky of a trade that wouldn’t have resembled the proper move for a team doing a rebuild the right way.

The New York native will likely be the top free agent in 2017 and will pull a lot of attention from teams around the league. It’s a possibility that he could sign with the Capitals but, the chances of that coming to fruition are slim due to their cap hit situation.

That being said, let’s explore Shattenkirk’s NHL resume and visit the idea of him signing with the Leafs.

Kevin Shattenkirk Quick Facts

Age: 28

Shoots: Right

Height and weight: 6 ft and 211 lb

Drafted: 14th overall in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft

Overall games played: 477

Overall goals: 66

Overall assists: 222

Overall points: 288

Career high in points: 11 goals and 46 points in 2016-17 and counting

Previous contract: Four-year extension at $17 million with an annual cap hit of $4.25 million

Nick Kypreos Weighing In

Shattenkirk wants to sign a big contract with a team trending upwards. Chances are high that whoever signs him, it will be for a lot of money and north of five years.

Here’s what Nick Kypreos had to say prior to this year’s NHL Trade Deadline about Shattenkirk’s potential interests after July 1:

"Everybody believes he’s going to be the top UFA available. I think on his wish list of long-term deals, he’s got about 12 teams. I’m told two of them are Canadian teams. I think it’s safe to say that he doesn’t envision himself being an Edmonton Oiler or a Calgary Flame, but the feeling is Toronto and Montreal."

Now we know he’s toying with the idea of playing in a Canadian market, meaning he’s open to discussing a long-term deal with the Leafs.

It’s just a matter of will the Leafs pay big money to sign him to the kind of deal he wants and will he even consider the Leafs as a viable option.

After all, he has a lot of leverage with where he’s going to play out the remainder of his glory days.

Contract Thoughts

Alex Pietrangelo is quite the similar player to Shattenkirk. They’re both around the same age and have almost put up the exact same numbers. Take a look, it’s pretty creepy. The major difference between the two is what the St. Louis Blues were willing to pay for them.

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In 2013, both were signed. Pietrangelo to a seven-year extension with an annual cap hit of $6.5 million and Shattenkirk to a four-year extension with an annual cap hit of $4.25.

Some might think that Shattenkirk is looking for a similar contract to that of the Blues captain. So, what would that look like? Ballpark, he might get signed to a 7×7 deal. That’s a seven-year deal worth $7 million.

It’s just a rough guess at what he’s worth. Some teams might think he’s not worth that much while others would be happy to pay that amount.

Leafs Projected Cap Hit

I know you didn’t sign up for math but, we’re going to give it a try.

Let’s assume that the Leafs will lose Brian Boyle, Ben Smith, Roman Polak, Matt Hunwick and Curtis McElhinney to unrestricted free agency this offseason. That means they’ll have to fill a few holes on the roster.

Frederik Gauthier slots in for Brian Boyle and maybe Andrew Nielsen could fill one of the defensive positions, leaving room for Shattenkirk to slot in and take the second spot. As for the vacant goalie position, the Leafs must try another backup out.

If you add up the Leafs cap hit for next season with all these UFA’s out of the picture, we’re looking at $41,962,501. Time to add the fixed cap hits of Gauthier and Nielsen and an estimated cost of $1 million for a backup goalie and we’re at $44,512,501.

The Leafs will also have restricted free agents Zach Hyman, Connor Brown and Nikita Zaitsev to re-sign. Let’s assume that Hyman and Brown receive similar contracts. On the light side, they could be signed to a two-year extension with an annual cap hit of $2 million. Then there’s Zaitsev who will fetch a little more.

Adding all that up, the Leafs will be at $52,762,501 for the 2017-18 season. Good thing Nathan Horton, Joffrey Lupul, and Stephane Robidas are on the long-term injured reserve list. Had they not, the cap hit would be $66,312,501 approximately.

Don’t forget that the 2017 Expansion Draft will alter the Leafs cap hit for next season and beyond. For the sake of having semi-round numbers, I’m not even going to touch what the Leafs might do in that scenario.

Pinpointing Future Cap Hit

The Leafs will also have Auston Matthews, Mitchell Marner, and William Nylander to re-sign when their entry-level contracts expire. Expect these to be big deals.

I’m going to estimate that they’ll each receive a seven-year extension with an annual cap hit of at least $5.5 million. Again, I’m airing on the side of caution and pretty much grouping them together. The Leafs cap hit could be $67,049,167. Add a few others signings the Leafs will need to make and they would be at around $70 million.

It might start to seem like they don’t have room for Shattenkirk unless you deal with the probable, being that players like James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak, and Leo Komarov have a finite amount of time left on the Leafs roster. If they’re all gone by the time The Triple Trifecta are all re-signed and we add some prospects to fill their slots, the Leafs would have an estimated cap hit of $59,649,167.

Ample room to add the kind of contract Shattenkirk is after. Now, I’m no mathematician. I’m terrible at math. For the most part, my estimations and calculations are accurate enough to make my point that they have enough room to acquire him.

Leafs Should Offer Contract

Shattenkirk’s a right-handed shot who’s defensively sound and his offensive prowess are among the best in the entire league. His resume speaks for itself.

If the Leafs were to extend to Shattenkirk a 7×7 contract, they would be offering two things. One, the kind of deal that he would entertain. And two, a place to compete for the Stanley Cup for a long time.

It makes sense for both the Leafs and the player.

Shattenkirk in Leafs Lineup

Assuming the Leafs do sign Shattenkirk, here’s an example of where he could fit into the lineup.

Morgan Rielly and Kevin Shattenkirk

Jake Gardiner and Nikita Zaitsev

Martin Marincin and Andrew Nielsen

Mike Babcock could slot him into the top pairing, plugging the hole on the Leafs blue line. This would bolster their lineup.

Drafting and Developing

Acquiring a player like Shattenkirk won’t solve the Leafs defensive woes in its entirety. They’ll still need to draft and develop players the right way.

Signing an elite defenseman such as himself will immediately help the Leafs. It will give the team a far better chance at a Cup then if they didn’t have him on the roster. Who knows what will happen in the end. If they don’t do anything to sacrifice long-term plans for short-term fixes, they’ll be good.

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