Toronto Maple Leafs: How to Take the Next Step

Dec 28, 2016; Sunrise, FL, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs center Mitch Marner (16) celebrates his game winning goal with right wing William Nylander (29) and defenseman Morgan Rielly in a shoot out against the Florida Panthers at BB&T Center. The Maple Leafs won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 28, 2016; Sunrise, FL, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs center Mitch Marner (16) celebrates his game winning goal with right wing William Nylander (29) and defenseman Morgan Rielly in a shoot out against the Florida Panthers at BB&T Center. The Maple Leafs won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Maple Leafs have around a 70% of making the Playoffs. They are way farther ahead than even most optimists thought.

That being said, if you have sucked for as long as the Leafs have, you don’t get to rest on your laurels. While a Stanley Cup this spring would be a huge long-shot, there are things  that can instantly make the Leafs better.

1. The Fourth Line

The worst possession players on the Toronto Maple Leafs are Gauthier, Smith, Soshnikov and Martin.  They allow more shots when they are on the ice then they get.  Except for Smith, they allow more goals too. I suspect Smith’s xGF being above 50% might have something to do with goalies saving almost 95% of the shots when he’s on the ice.  (i.e Luck).

Basically, the Leafs fourth line is one of their main weaknesses.

I think the Leafs should target:

centre Radek Faksa of Dallas – though as a 22 year-old ex-first rounder, he won’t be easy to come by.

Familiar Wingers P.A Paranteau and Lee Stempniak.

All three of these players are solid possession players who can score at 5v5 and all three are better than you normally find on a fourth line.  All three would certainly help the Leafs.   And all three could play higher in the lineup and provide flexibility.

Probably we’re stuck with Matt Martin, but Smith and Soshnikov could pretty easily be upgraded.

2. Defensive Pairings

The Toronto Maple Leafs need to upgrade their defense.  I’ll break this into some sub-catagories of things to do.

  1. Flip Gardiner and Rielly.  Carrick/Gardiner is one of the NHL’s most statistically effective pairings – they move the puck and don’t often get hemmed in their own end. Playing them as the first-pairing would make the Leafs instantly better.
  2.  Get Rielly a new partner, move Zaitsev to third pairing.  There are two players I would target here: Chris Tanev of the Canucks and Josh Manson of the Ducks. Both are ‘defensive defensemen’ in a way that is diametrically opposite Roman Polak – i.e they are good!  If they do this, I have no problem keeping Rielly on the top pairing.
  3. Martin Marincin w/ Zaitsev on third pairing.  It’d probably be one of the best bottom pairings in the NHL.

3. William Nylander @ Centre

The main reason this hasn’t happened yet is because Tyler Bozak is the de facto captain and longest-serving member of this team.

But it is happening.  20 Year old possession-driving, defensively competent centres don’t spend their careers on the wing. Especially when they have the offensive potential to win an Art Ross Trophy.

William Nylander is a super-star in the making and the Leafs will get instantly better the second they decide to give him his own line.

Bozak can either improve the Leafs by bringing back something helpful – Bozak and a first for Chris Tanev? – or he can become the best fourth-line centre in the NHL.  Either way, the Leafs become instantly better.

Nylander can be replaced on the wing by NHL ready Kirby Reichel.

That’s it! The Leafs don’t need to make a huge trade – a smaller fish like Tanev, Faksa or Manson is all they really need. Other than that, a slight re-arrangement of roles  can make them instantly better.

Hyman – Matthews – Brown

JVR –  Nylander –  Marner

Komarov – Kadri –  Reichel

Paranteau – Faksa – Martin

Rielly – Tanev

Gardiner – Carrick

Marincin – Zaitsev