Toronto Maple Leafs Primed for Second-Half Success
By James Tanner
The Toronto Maple Leafs resume play tonight against the Rangers, after a five-day break. The Maple Leafs have played 39 games for an 18-13-8 record with 44 points. While not technically in a playoff position, they have played as many as six games less than other teams, and look primed to make a solid second-half run.
The first half of the season has been an unexpected and indisputable success: while running out a staggering average of eight rookies per-game, the Toronto Maple Leafs have been one of the NHL’s best offensive, and most exciting teams.
They are one of three teams in their division with a positive goal-differential and, if you prorate their goals per-game to match how many games Montreal has played, they have scored about half a goal less than the division leaders in that category.
If there is one thing holding the Leafs back it is protecting a lead after two periods. The thing about this, however: it’s not a real problem. The Leafs have blown eight separate leads, but that looks and sounds so much worse than it actually is.
Maple Leafs Better Than You Think
In the NHL, leads after two-periods are essentially a guarantee of victory – over 80% of teams with the lead after two periods win the game. My theory here is that the Leaf’s problems are almost exclusively bad luck.
It seems far more plausible that bad luck would cause them to blow four leads over five games (or whatever preposterous rate it was) rather than some deficiency on their part. This is because blown leads are so rare in the NHL, and they are (otherwise) such a strong team. In a league where a two-period lead is nearly a guaranteed victory, and in a league where the Leafs are one of the better statistical teams, and one of, if not the best, teams in the NHL after 40 minutes, the odds are it’s more of a statistical fluke than a real problem.
Even if you insist on considering it a ‘learning curve’ for a young team (I’d call that a lazy narrative) rather than acknowledging a statistical anomaly, you have to at least admit that it’s unlikely to continue. If they blow the 16 3rd period leads they are on pace, that would mean they blew 20% of their total games in a league where there is an 80% probability the game is over after two periods.
Unless the Leafs are the worst defensive, lead-holding team in the history of the NHL, I believe the numbers say that what has occurred is no more than an improbable run of bad luck.
If you buy that – and you should because it’s true – then the Leafs ought to have an even better record than they do. It’s not implausible that with some better luck they are near the top of the league.
Some Stats!
Here are some nice team-based stats to get you pumped for the second half of the season.
The Leafs are:
13th in the NHL in score-adjusted 5v5 Corsi.
3rd in 5v5 shots/60
2nd in expected-goals/ 60 (only the Penguins are better, and look at their roster!)
Their PDO is just slightly over 100 meaning that they aren’t really getting better results than they deserve.
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They have scored only 11 goals less than the league-leading Rangers 5v5, with three less games played.
Going in to the second-half, the Leafs can be confident because goaltending cost them so many points in October, and blowing leads also cost them. They can look at all the details and confidently know that they could be much higher in the standings with just a little luck.
Hopefully that starts tonight with a defeat of the Rangers.