Toronto Maple Leafs: Leo Komarov 15-16 Season Review

Toronto Maple Leafs forward Leo Komarov had a fiery start to the 2015-2016 season that had people jumping on the Leo train early and often.

The problem was, for Komarov and the Toronto Maple Leafs, that it wasn’t realistically sustainable.

Komarov was the benefactor early on from an outrageous increase in his personal shooting percentage that led to a lot of extra pucks finding the twine for the Finnish agitator.

Komarov’s value has never been his point totals, though, for the Toronto Maple Leafs. His value has – or at least should have – been measured in overall solid play.

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He may have been lined up with Nazem Kadri for ~84% of his 5v5 TOI, but that doesn’t mean he should be considered a top-six player – because he just isn’t. The skewed perception of his offensive abilities based on his initial high shooting percentage this year is the only thing that bumps his numbers into a top-six winger role.

For the first 33 games of Komarov’s 67 game season he was extremely sheltered when he was sent over the boards. He enjoyed a 15.2% offensive zone start percentage, relative to the team, from the start of the season until Christmas Day.

Not coincidentally, this is the portion of the season (49.3% of his total games played) where he registered  63.6% of his total 5v5 points.

Komarov’s personal shooting percentage during this time was 17.8% at even strength; this from a career 8.9% shooter (all situations) from his first two seasons in Toronto.

His underlying numbers were also some of the best on the team during this period.

*numbers from war-on-ice.com

Scoring at a 1.8 P60 clip at 5v5 isn’t something to scoff at; it’s a legitimate top-six total, but, again, he was highly sheltered and shooting over double his career percentage.

He was taking part in a lot of offensive chance generation for the Toronto Maple Leafs during the first 33 games, though.

The downfall of Komarov’s numbers was inevitable – and in the second half of his season (34 games from Boxing Day until the season’s end) his numbers did just what you’d expect.

*numbers from war-on-ice.com

A huge contributing factor to his downturn in numbers can be laid on an offensive zone start percentage, relative to the team, of -11.8%. That’s a 27% difference from his first 33 games. Had that deployment not changed so drastically in the wrong direction Komarov’s numbers likely wouldn’t have dipped so much, but his offensive production would have stayed lower with his shot percentage going down.

Komarov’s shot percentage at 5v5 went from 17.8% in the first 33 games to 5.3% over the last 34. His eight 5v5 points amounted to 36.4% of his evens point total during 50.7% of his seasons games.

During the back end of his season he couldn’t score to save his life, his linemates couldn’t score to save their lives and the goalies were sieves. A thought worth considering for his horrific goals for percentage, relative.

For his high-danger numbers dropping significantly, well, that’s a product of a player who doesn’t normal generate a high rate of offense being deployed in his own end to start more often than not.

With his new numbers, though, he’s back to earth and a third line winger again.

Komarov’s dollar value ($2.95M AAV) for the Toronto Maple Leafs was worth it’s weight in gold while he was being deployed in a highly sheltered role. When he found himself on the other extreme his value was slightly below average. If the Toronto Maple Leafs want Komarov’s value at its peak they probably want to get him closer to 0% offensive zone starts relative and let his shot percentage fluctuate as it wants.

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Overall, Komarov had a good season and isn’t overpaid like some might suggest. He can’t control his deployment and, looking back, I doubt he’ll be sent out in such volatile situations next year for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Komarov can moonlight in the top-six due to injury, and with increased sheltering, but it shouldn’t be his set position.