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Maple Leafs: The First Step For Getting Back To Post-Season

By Tim Chiasson

Mar 5, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Mike Babcock and center William Nylander (39) look on from the bench against the Ottawa Senators at Air Canada Centre. The Senators beat the Maple Leafs 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 5, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Mike Babcock and center William Nylander (39) look on from the bench against the Ottawa Senators at Air Canada Centre. The Senators beat the Maple Leafs 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Toronto Maple Leafs have embarrassed their fan-base for quite some time but that’s about to change – and soon.

Mike Babcock has the Toronto Maple Leafs heading in the right direction even though the standings results might not sing that tune.

Babcock took a team that finished 28th (45.1) in 5v5 score-adjusted Fenwick in 2014-2015 and improved them to 19th (49.3) in 2015-2016. With the switch of a system and a future hall of fame head coach, the Toronto Maple Leafs jumped significantly in the possession game. Possession matters, whether you want it to or not.

Over the last seven seasons – dating back to the 2009-2010 season – there have been 112 playoff berths. Of those 112 playoff teams only 24 made the playoffs by finishing lower than 16th in regular season score-adjusted Fenwick.

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That gives the top-16 in SAF a 78.6% chance to be a playoff team. Those are pretty good odds.

By shifting your system and playing a possession-aware game of hockey you can increase the likelihood that you make the playoffs significantly.

Now, you could take the 2014-2015 Calgary Flames as an example of a team that tried to make a case that possession doesn’t matter and you can wish and pray your way to success. That would be a bad idea, though.

Of the 24 teams that made the playoffs in the last seven years that didn’t crack the top-16 in score-adjusted Fenwick, only nine of them have won a first round playoff series (including whoever wins the Florida vs New York series this year). Of the eight winners in years not counting this year (FLA/NYI will make nine, but their second round fate isn’t known) four of them won that first round series against another team who finished outside the top-16 SAF during the regular season – and then lost when they played a team who did finish in the top-16.

So, that leaves only four teams – of the 24 – that made the playoffs being 17th or lower in SAF who actually won a playoff series against a team that finished in the top-16. Only the Montreal Canadiens were able to win two series’ in the same post-season while being outside the top-16 in those seven years. They did it twice, on the backbone of their goaltenders.

What’s the moral of the story? Possession matters – a lot. Getting into the top-16 SAF ranking for the regular season means you’re more often than not going to make the playoffs.

There were games the Toronto Maple Leafs would have won this year if they didn’t have terrible shooting or horrendous goaltending, but that was by design. Had they played James Reimer 65 games this year I’d wager they wouldn’t have finished in the bottom five let alone dead last.

Next: Who's The Next Captain?

Just for some Babcock-Effect related fun, the Red Wings dropped 1.9% (52.2 to 50.3) without Babcock, while the Toronto Maple Leafs jumped from 4.2% in the right direction (45.1 to 49.3).

The Toronto Maple Leafs 4.2% jump in score-adjusted Fenwick with Babcock was a significant increase and if they find that number increasing again next season – even slightly – they’ll be further away from another tank than everyone thinks. Getting into that top-16 is the first step towards making the playoffs. Staying there consistently is the first step to being competitive year in, year out.

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