Toronto Maple Leafs: A Look At Scoring Chances (Defense)

The Toronto Maple Leafs don’t have the best defensive core in the league, but that doesn’t mean we can’t take a look at who is a little worse (or better) than everyone else on the blueline.

I’m only going to use the five major minute defenders from last year that are still with the Toronto Maple Leafs (Polak, Phaneuf, Gardiner, Rielly and Robidas) because there’s no need to look at the departed.

Only the Buffalo Sabres (35.6) allowed more shots against per game (all situations) than the Toronto Maple Leafs (33.5) did during the 2014-2015 NHL season. In this post we’ll look at the scoring chances/high danger scoring chances data from war-on-ice.com for the above five players.

I’ve added in Seth Jones and Shea Weber from the Nashville Predators as a comparison from a competition point of view as well as for a top defensive core visual.

Scoring Chances For, Relative % – SCA per 60

Jake Gardiner is significantly better than every other Toronto Maple Leafs defender in these statistics. For a player who (seemingly) lacks effort, he’s effective at both ends of the ice.

High -Danger Scoring Chances For, Relative % – HDSCA per 60

Gardiner is the runaway winner again – and it’s a massive spread from the field for high-danger chances.

The biggest takeaway I got from this is that Jake Gardiner’s numbers continue to prove that he’s better than he’s perceived.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have the most (chance) success offensively and defensively with Jake Gardiner on the ice. Watching Jake Gardiner play it’s quite apparent that he has no desire to skate backwards, but somehow he manages to allow a minimal amount of scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances against. Incredible.

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The chances-for numbers I’d expect from Gardiner because his offensive game from the back-end is what Jake Gardiner sells you on – that’s what his potential is known for. His numbers are, in context as a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs, pretty fantastic.

It’s also noticeable that Roman Polak is a disaster for anything outside of his own zone. He’s also not the immovable shutdown rock that some might have you believe – which is why a trade for an asset is worthwhile for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Dion Phaneuf, well, he faces the top competition all the time – and he hasn’t had much success at keeping them at bay. The Phaneuf topic goes back to deployment and him being overcast in a role (#1 D) that just doesn’t suit him.

Morgan Rielly is getting better and we have to remember he’s only 21. I’d wager a Rielly-Gardiner pairing would be extremely fun to watch and not nearly as nail-biting in their own zone as originally thought.

Stephane Robidas is functional – much more than Roman Polak is – so that’s a calming thought given his extra contract year.

The Toronto Maple Leafs defense has much to improve on – systematically and personnel-wise – but that’s what the rebuild is for. As a starting point, the Toronto Maple Leafs defensive group should strive to hit scoring chances against numbers similar to Jake Gardiner to make life easier for Jonathan Bernier and James Reimer.

Next: Which Marlie Breaks Out In 15/16?

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