VUKOTA point and save percentage projections for the Leafs roster

John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

A few days ago, Hockey Prospectus released their VUKOTA projections for the upcoming season. An ESPN Insider post revealed how VUKOTA predicted the finish for all 30 teams this year, and the Leafs were ranked 10th. But VUKOTA also attempts to predict the games played, goals, assists and points for every skater in the league and the games played and save percentage for goaltenders. You can have access to all things VUKOTA by buying this excel document for just over four bucks.

Here’s how VUKOTA thinks each Toronto Maple Leafs player will finish in scoring (and save percentage for the goalies):

Position

Age

Games Played

Goals

Assists

Points

Phil Kessel

RW

26

72.7

35.7

48.6

84.3

Nazem Kadri

C

23

73.1

28.6

40.5

69.1

James van Riemsdyk

LW

24

68.4

26.8

27.6

54.4

Joffrey Lupul

LW/RW

30

53.2

21.6

25.8

47.4

David Clarkson

RW

29

71.6

24.3

19.8

44.2

Tyler Bozak

C

27

66.3

16.2

25.5

41.7

Dion Phaneuf

LD/RD

28

67.7

10.3

29.4

39.7

Cody Franson

LD

26

61.3

8.4

29.3

37.7

Nikolai Kulemin

LW/RW

27

68.9

11.7

22.9

34.6

Mason Raymond

LW

28

66

15.3

19.1

34.5

Dave Bolland

C

27

59.1

12.3

15.3

27.6

Jay McClement

C

30

66.2

9.8

12.3

22

Carl Gunnarsson

LD

27

58.7

3.5

16.2

19.7

Jake Gardiner

LD

23

47.4

4

15.4

19.3

John-Michael Liles

RD

33

49

4.4

14.3

18.7

T.J. Brennan

LD

24

45.5

3.8

11.7

15.5

Mark Fraser

LD

27

66.7

1.3

10.7

12

Trevor Smith

C/LW

28

27.1

4.2

5.5

9.7

Joe Colborne

C/LW

23

27.8

3.9

5.4

9.3

Frazer McLaren

LW

26

50.6

3.7

3.7

7.4

Korbinian Holzer

D

25

38.5

2.4

4.8

7.2

Colton Orr

RW

31

56.6

1.4

2.5

4

 

Position

Age

GP

SV%

James Reimer

G

25

45.3

.912

Jonathan Bernier

G

25

26.8

.910

 

  • VUKOTA seems to have a fundamental flaw in predicting games played. According to VUKOTA, only three Leafs (Kessel, Kadri and Clarkson) will finish with over 70 games played by the end of the season, and no Leaf will play more than 73 games. It may have been a shortened season last year, but seven Leafs were still able to play the entire 48-game schedule. Even looking at the entire league, I couldn’t find any players VUKOTA predicts to play 80 games. There is a problem here.
  • A few key players VUKOTA predicts to play less than 60 games: Lupul, Bolland, Gunnarsson, Gardiner and Orr. (Just kidding on that last one.) If this happens, the Leafs will be in trouble.
  • VUKOTA may be the only “expert” in the hockey world who doesn’t think Bernier will take the starting role from Reimer this year. It still thinks both goalies are bound to regress quite a bit.
  • VUKOTA only seems to recognize players that played in the NHL last year, hence why Paul Ranger is absent from this list.
  • Kudos to VUKOTA for successfully summing up Orr’s value (or lack thereof) to this team.

Topics: NHL Training Camp, Toronto Maple Leafs, VUKOTA Projections

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