Is There A Correlation Between Regular Season And Playoff Success Among NHL Goaltenders?
By Tim Bayer
May 28, 2013; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Kings goalie Jonathan Quick (32) makes a save off San Jose Sharks center Joe Pavelski (8) in the third period of game seven of the second round of the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Staples Center. Kings won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
In my last post, I compiled regular season even strength save percentage (ESSV%) numbers among NHL goaltenders over the last three years to try to determine which goalies had been the most consistent over that span. This time around I’m going to use these numbers and compare them with playoff numbers to try and see if there is any correlation. Do consistently good netminders tend to stay consistent come playoff time? Or is it more common for goalies to get hot and ride unsustainable percentages to a deep playoff run?
I admit this is a bit of a flawed study, in that the playoffs are a tiny sample size. In my last post, I made sure all the goalies had hit the three thousand even strength shots-against (ESSA) mark over the last three years to qualify for the list. Even a full regular season of data isn’t enough to properly evaluate a goaltender’s true skill level. So you shouldn’t read too much into each goalie’s individual results; this is more about looking at the goaltending position as a whole.
I set the mark for playoff ESSA at two hundred. There were either seven or eight goaltenders who qualified for any given year. Only Pekka Rinne, Antti Niemi, Jimmy Howard, Jonathan Quick and Henrik Lundqvist qualified for more than one post-season (Yay for parity!). In total, 18 goaltenders qualified for this analysis. The regular season ESSV% numbers were compiled from stats.hockeyanalysis.com and the playoff ESSV% and all ESSA numbers from NHL.com. Without further ado, let’s look at the results on a year-by-year basis, starting with 2010-11:
Team |
Reg. Season ESSA
Reg. Season ESSV%
Playoff ESSA
Playoff ESSV%
ESSV% Difference
BOS
1486
94.9
690
94.9
0
VAN
1416
93.4
548
93.1
-0.3
Antti Niemi
CHI
1407
93.1
433
91.2
-1.9
TBL
788
92.4
431
92.1
-0.3
Jimmy Howard
DET
1492
91.5
281
94
+2.5
Pekka Rinne
NSH
1578
93.5
275
93.5
0
MTL
1683
93
216
92.6
-0.4
WSH
1024
91.8
213
91.5
-0.3
And in chart form:
With the exception of Niemi and Howard, there really is only a negligible difference between regular season and playoff ESSV%. Given the small sample size, it would be shortsighted to make any sweeping conclusions about each goaltender’s ability or inability to “step it up” in the post-season. But what we can glean from this information is that consistently good regular season goaltenders tend to stay good in the post-season. On to 2011-12:
Team |
Reg. Season ESSA
Reg. Season ESSV%
Playoff ESSA
Playoff ESSV%
ESSV% Difference
NJD
1225
91
491
93.9
+2.9
PHX
1724
93.7
486
94.4
+0.7
Jonathan Quick
LAK
1479
93.4
428
94.6
+1.2
Henrik Lundqvist
NYR
1454
93.3
432
93.8
+0.5
WSH
161
92.7
400
94
+1.3
Pekka Rinne
NSH
1831
92.7
248
93.5
+0.8
PHI
1275
92
252
89.7
-2.3
Interestingly, every goaltender in this list except Bryzgalov improved their numbers in the post-season. The overall difference between regular season and playoff numbers this year was 9.7, a full four points higher than the year before. Still, the only goalies who saw their numbers fluctuate by more than 1.3 were Brodeur and Bryzgalov. Now let’s look at this past year:
Team |
Reg. Season ESSA
Reg. Season ESSV%
Playoff ESSA
Playoff ESSV%
ESSV% Difference
Jimmy Howard
DET
905
94
372
93.8
-0.2
Henrik Lundqvist
NYR
966
93.6
358
94
+0.4
BOS
832
93.6
333
94
+0.4
Jonathan Quick
LAK
731
90.7
321
96
+5.3
OTT
528
94
266
92.9
-1.1
CHI
636
93.2
265
92.5
-1.3
Antti Niemi
SJS
1012
93.1
252
94.4
+1.3
TOR
857
92.6
234
92.7
+0.1
The only goalie still playing in the playoffs who didn’t make the 200 ESSA cut line was Tomas Vokoun, who just barely missed it. It’s also interesting to note that James Reimer faced the most even strength shots out of any goaltender whose team was eliminated in the first round out of the past three years. Carey Price was the only other goaltender from a first round-eliminated team to qualify for this study. The obvious outlier this year is Jon Quick. If you take him out, the overall difference is 4.8; with him included it’s 10.1.
When you remove the five outliers from the study that vary by more than 1.3, you’re left with a difference of 1.3 in 2010-11, 4.5 in 2011-12 and 4.8 from this year. That’s a per goaltender difference of 0.22 in 2010-11, 0.9 in 2011-12 and 0.69 this year. That’s pretty negligible.
All in all, there are a few outliers every year who perform substantially above or below their expected level from the regular season, but for most goalies, there does seem to be a correlation. It will be interesting to revisit these numbers when the playoffs are over to see if there is more fluctuation. If I had more time, I would look at more years and see if this trend continues over the long-term. I’m no math major, so if you spot any inconsistencies or mistakes, please let me know in the comments.